Leveraged bets in the Monero (XMR) futures market are building quickly. According to SoSoValue data, notional open interest in Monero futures has moved above $300 million, while open contracts have climbed to a five-week high of 515,730 XMR from about 400,000 XMR over the past week.
XMR has also pushed back above $600, its highest level since January. BlockTempo said the combination of rising price and rising open interest resembles the setup seen in January, when the market went through a cycle of crowded longs, concentrated liquidations and a 66% drop.
Anonymous crypto analyst Doctor Profit wrote on X: “The last time open interest reached this level was in January 2026. Over the next 20 days, Monero fell 66%. I smell a major XMR liquidation event.” The report said Doctor Profit had correctly called Bitcoin’s 2025 top last year and rotated positions in July this year, which has brought added attention to the warning.
January remains the main comparison point
The report said Monero’s open interest hit a record in January, while spot price climbed to about $790. Over the next 20 days, XMR then slid steadily and fell below $300 by early February. Coinglass data cited in the report showed that forced liquidations of long positions during that period reached several million dollars, forming a classic pattern of crowded bullish leverage followed by cascading liquidations.
BlockTempo said a similar mix is now back in place: open interest is rising alongside price, and the market is skewed toward long positions. In that kind of structure, even a modest pullback can trigger a chain reaction in liquidations and add more selling pressure.
Two ways to read the open interest data
SoSoValue tracks total open interest in dollar terms, which gives traders a way to compare the size of futures markets across different crypto assets. The higher the open interest, the more leveraged positions remain in the market waiting to be closed or settled, and the larger the potential chain reaction if price reverses.
Using Monero as the example, the report said the current $300 million open interest means that every 5% move in price puts about $15 million worth of leveraged positions under pressure.
Open interest measured in XMR is also moving higher. The report said the figure rose from 400,000 XMR to 515,730 XMR in one week, an increase of nearly 30%, suggesting that new traders are not only leaning bullish but also adding aggressively to positions.
What is driving price and what traders are watching next
BlockTempo said Monero, the world’s second-largest privacy coin with a market capitalization of about $1.09 billion, has been supported by several factors. One is that the network was repaired after being disrupted by the Qubic chain in October, which drew market attention back to privacy coins. Another is a broader improvement in risk appetite across crypto markets. After SpaceX and AI earnings lifted sentiment in tech stocks and Bitcoin returned to $83,000, capital started rotating into smaller-cap tokens.
Still, elevated open interest comes with higher volatility. The report said that if Monero falls below support at $580, cascading long liquidations could drag the price back into the $500 range and produce a drop similar to the one seen in January.
For traders, the report said changes in SoSoValue open interest and Coinglass liquidation heat maps may offer a clearer read on market direction than watching the order book alone.