Bitcoin’s on-chain positioning has shifted sharply. With circulating supply estimated at roughly 20 million BTC, only about 9.8 million BTC are now held in profit under current market conditions, meaning more than 10.5 million BTC sit at a loss. According to Glassnode, this is the first time in the current market cycle that loss-making Bitcoin supply has exceeded profitable supply.
Loss-making supply moves ahead of profitable holdings
The crossover shows how much of the market accumulated Bitcoin at prices above current levels. As the price weakened, more coins moved into unrealized loss, pushing underwater supply beyond coins still in profit. Similar shifts have appeared during deep bear-market periods in past cycles and have at times lined up with major lows. Even so, the metric does not offer a precise timing signal on its own, because these phases have lasted very different lengths of time across different years.
Past cycles show no fixed timeline
Historical comparisons highlight that variation. In the 2015 bear market, loss-making and profitable supply stayed near parity for about one year. In 2019, a comparable stretch lasted around six months. During the March 2020 COVID-driven crash, the phase ended in roughly one month. In 2022, the same setup persisted for nearly half a year. The signal has appeared near cycle lows before, but history does not say how long Bitcoin may remain under pressure once it arrives.
The 200-week moving average near $61,300
Another level drawing attention is Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, now sitting close to $61,300. This long-term trend indicator is based on the average price over the last 200 weeks and has historically been watched as a major support area in previous bear markets. If Bitcoin falls through the psychologically important $60,000 mark, traders are likely to shift their focus to the next support zone below.
Why the $54,000 area matters
That next zone stands near $54,000, which also aligns with Bitcoin’s current realized price. Realized price represents the average acquisition cost of all circulating BTC based on the price at which each coin last moved on-chain. In every major bear market, Bitcoin has traded below realized price at least once. That history has put both $61,300 and $54,000 on the market’s watchlist as traders assess whether sentiment worsens or whether a deeper washout starts to resemble a bottoming phase.
With no clear reversal signal and no decisive capitulation pattern yet visible, caution remains the dominant tone. Price action around those technical and on-chain levels is likely to stay under close watch.