Marvell Technology told investors it is targeting more than $30 in non-GAAP earnings per share for FY31, tied to a revenue framework of $70 billion to $90 billion. In a report dated Oct. 7, 2026, Morgan Stanley said that target came in at least 20% above its previous forecast.
The bank raised its price target on Marvell to $300 from $268 and kept its Equal-weight rating. Morgan Stanley said it sees the company’s growth drivers, but also noted that the guidance rests on a view that data center capital spending will reach $3 trillion by 2030. It added that the FY31 revenue framework is based on existing customers, products, and design wins, not on any single socket.
FY31 revenue framework runs above prior expectations
Morgan Stanley said the midpoint of Marvell’s data center revenue outlook is $77.5 billion, spanning interconnect, custom, switching, and storage. In an earlier preview, the bank had expected Marvell might outline FY30 revenue above $40 billion. The new framework runs ahead of that path, with most of the incremental upside coming from interconnect and custom.
Marvell lifted its FY28 revenue target to $20 billion from $18 billion, while leaving FY27 unchanged at about $12 billion. Morgan Stanley said the FY31 framework implies a revenue CAGR of 55% to 70%.
The guidance maps to a CY30 total addressable market of about $400 billion. That includes $65 billion for interconnect, $85 billion for switching and storage, $235 billion for custom, and $15 billion for communications and other. At the midpoint, Morgan Stanley said Marvell would be capturing about 20% of its addressable data center TAM.
Interconnect seen as the biggest source of incremental growth
Morgan Stanley described interconnect as the clearest theme from Marvell’s investor day and the main reason behind the higher FY28 revenue target. Management said the additional $2 billion comes from continued strength in scale-out optics, a wider scale-up optics opportunity, and switching.
Scale-up optics is still largely a greenfield business with almost no revenue today. Management said it should begin contributing several hundred million dollars next year, then ramp more sharply after that. Scale-out switching is expected to be well above $1 billion next year.
Marvell also disclosed that it is developing switches for the UALink accelerator interconnect standard and that those products are being deployed at a leading hyperscaler. Morgan Stanley said this was the first time the company had publicly discussed that socket.
The bank added that the Trainium 4 opportunity still appears to favor Astera Labs, though it said the market is large enough for both companies to win meaningful sockets. Morgan Stanley said it is watching Marvell’s UALink progress closely.
The report said scale-up accounts for about 85% of current data center traffic. The shift from copper to integrated optics is central to that opportunity. Marvell’s portfolio spans digital signal processors, transimpedance amplifiers and drivers, near-packaged optics, and co-packaged optics. Morgan Stanley said optical content can reach several thousand dollars per XPU across both custom accelerators and switching, and argued that Marvell’s breadth across the optical stack is a key differentiator.
Custom revenue revision tied by Morgan Stanley to Google opportunity
Marvell raised its FY29 custom revenue target to more than $12 billion from more than $10 billion. It expects that business to grow more than threefold from FY28 to FY31, reaching about $30 billion by FY31.
Management said existing XPU programs remain on track, with a growing share of expansion coming from XPU attach opportunities including networking, memory, storage, infrastructure management, and inference acceleration. It also identified inference acceleration as a new opportunity, referring to dedicated accelerators attached to XPUs to offload specific workloads.
Morgan Stanley said that opportunity could be tied to Google, though management did not comment on any specific customer. The bank said it assumes current XPU programs include Maia and other existing engagements.
On the Google agreement, management said the FY31 forecast assumes a reasonable portion of the opportunity and does not use the full warrant framework. Morgan Stanley said upside could be meaningful if utilization eventually approaches maximum potential. It described the Google opportunity as one of the main drivers behind the higher custom outlook.
Morgan Stanley keeps Equal-weight
Morgan Stanley revised its FY28 estimates to $20.3 billion in revenue, 57.7% gross margin, and $7.76 in EPS, up from prior forecasts of $18 billion, 57.9%, and $6.68.
For FY29, it now models $35.9 billion in revenue, 57.5% gross margin, and $14.32 in EPS, versus previous estimates of $24.1 billion, 57.9%, and $9.58. Its FY30 forecast stands at $53.6 billion in revenue, 57.5% gross margin, and $21.55 in EPS.
The $300 target price is based on 46x CY27e ModelWare EPS of $6.54. Morgan Stanley cut the valuation multiple from 49x to 46x; the prior framework used $5.47 in EPS.
The bank said its preference was to buy Marvell ahead of the analyst event and continue holding the stock afterward. Still, it warned that this growth profile raises the bar for every quarter going forward. Morgan Stanley wrote that when several companies all have strong four-year growth outlooks, those that issue long-range guidance face a higher hurdle than those that do not. It said Marvell and Advanced Micro Devices, or AMD, have provided long-term guidance, while NVIDIA and Broadcom have not.
In its scenario analysis, Morgan Stanley set a bull case of $480 based on 60x CY27e ModelWare EPS of $7.46, a base case of $300 based on 46x and EPS of $6.54, and a bear case of $172 based on 30x and EPS of $5.73. The report listed the current share price at $287.01, close to the base-case target.
Morgan Stanley’s bottom line was that Marvell is betting on $3 trillion in data center capex by 2030, with its FY31 revenue framework supported by existing customers, products, and design wins rather than a single socket. If that path holds, the company can reach $80 billion in revenue. The report also said the company will need to deliver against that path quarter after quarter, because the hurdle is now higher.
This article is based on a summary and interpretation of a third-party broker report. The ratings, price target, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited here are Morgan Stanley analysts’ views from their Oct. 7, 2026 report and do not constitute investment advice.
