Morgan Stanley said the rebuilding of advanced manufacturing in the United States extends well beyond chip reshoring and could benefit companies tied to rockets, satellites, industrial robotics, humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, and drones. In that framework, which the bank labeled "Tera‘Merica," SpaceX stands out because of its exposure to space launch, satellite communications, and AI infrastructure.
The bank estimated that SpaceX could reach about 4.9GW of AI compute capacity by the end of fiscal 2027, versus a company target close to 10GW. Based on Morgan Stanley’s assumptions of $50 per watt in capital spending, a 70% incremental margin, and a 10x EBITDA valuation multiple, each additional 1GW of nominal compute capacity could add about $27 per share in value. On that basis, the firm maintained its Overweight rating and a $300 price target on SpaceX.
Morgan Stanley also said it remains positive on the commercialization potential of enterprise AI, while noting that the market is still assigning conservative valuations to that business. The bank applied a 50% discount to its enterprise AI valuation and flagged Starship and Starlink execution, AI infrastructure build-out costs, and the pace of enterprise AI commercialization as the main risks.
According to BlockBeats, Morgan Stanley on Oct. 9 described the rebuilding of advanced manufacturing in the United States as "Tera‘Merica" and said the opportunity goes beyond chip reshoring. The bank said the theme also covers rockets, satellites, industrial robots, humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, and drones, with SpaceX positioned to benefit through its space, satellite communications, and AI infrastructure businesses.
Morgan Stanley keeps a $300 target on SpaceX
On AI compute, Morgan Stanley estimated that SpaceX could reach about 4.9GW by the end of fiscal 2027, while the company’s target is close to 10GW. Under the bank’s assumptions of $50 per watt in spending, a 70% incremental profit margin, and a 10x EBITDA multiple, each additional 1GW of nominal compute capacity could add about $27 per share in value.
Based on that view, Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating on SpaceX and kept its price target at $300.
Enterprise AI seen as promising, but valuation remains cautious
Morgan Stanley also said it is positive on the commercialization potential of enterprise AI. At the same time, it noted that the market remains cautious in valuing that business and applied a 50% discount to its enterprise AI valuation.
The bank said the main risks are progress on Starship and Starlink, the cost of building compute capacity, and the speed of enterprise AI commercialization.
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