Analyst Murphy said more than 65,000 BTC were moved on each of the past two days, excluding internal transfers within the same entity, and that the activity led to a sharp drop in net holdings among long-term holders, or LTHs. He said the LTH net position had already broken from its prior rising trend in May and then remained flat through July, which he described as relatively uncommon over the past year. Murphy added that nearly 14,000 BTC from the recent movement was sent to exchanges. As one example, he pointed to 2,628 BTC transferred by a Trump-affiliated listed company to Crypto.com. The destination and purpose of the rest of the LTH net reduction remain unclear, according to his post. Murphy also listed several macro risks that could weigh on BTC, including a 9-3 split vote by the Federal Reserve to cut rates, conflict in the Middle East and oil prices, concentrated valuations in U.S. AI stocks that rely on debt and private credit financing, and renewed buildup in yen carry trade positioning to a near historical extreme net short one-way level. He said BTC’s current holder structure could amplify those risks.
According to ChainCatcher, analyst Murphy said more than 65,000 BTC were moved on each of the past two days, excluding internal transfers within the same entity, and that the activity caused a sharp decline in net holdings by long-term holders (LTHs).
Murphy said the LTH net position changed course in May after a prior stretch of steady gains, then stayed flat through July. He described that pattern as relatively uncommon over the past year.
He added that nearly 14,000 BTC from the recent transfers was sent to exchanges. As one disclosed example, a Trump-affiliated listed company transferred 2,628 BTC to Crypto.com. The destination and purpose of the rest of the LTH net reduction remain unknown, he said.
Macro risks flagged by Murphy
Murphy also listed several macro factors that could affect BTC: the Federal Reserve’s 9-3 split vote to cut rates, conflict in the Middle East and oil prices, highly concentrated valuations in U.S. AI stocks alongside reliance on debt and private credit financing, and a renewed buildup in yen carry trade positioning to a near historical extreme one-way net short level.
He said the current sensitivity of BTC’s holder structure could amplify those risks.
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