Odaily reported that crypto analyst Murphy published a post arguing that Strategy is not currently facing a preferred-stock repayment crisis. His comments addressed the discussion around STRC losing its peg, a move that some have compared with the previous cycle’s UST depeg and LUNA collapse. Murphy said that comparison is a clear overinterpretation, because Strategy remains a considerable distance from forced liquidation.
Bitcoin would need to fall sharply to breach key layers
According to Murphy, Bitcoin would need to drop to $26,000 to break through Strategy’s preferred-stock layer. To breach the company’s debt layer, Bitcoin would need to decline further to $8,000. Based on that framework, he said the current pressure around Strategy has not reached the level of a liquidation crisis. The issue is better understood through changes in financing structure, credit pricing and liquidity conditions.
Murphy also pointed to the performance of SATA, a comparable product that has remained above $99 this week. STRC, by contrast, has depegged. In his view, the gap between the two products indicates that the latest selling pressure is aimed more at Strategy itself rather than at a structural flaw in the design of related products. STRC’s price action, therefore, should not be treated as proof that the broader product mechanism has failed.
A paused flywheel, not a forced-liquidation event
Murphy described the current situation as a repricing of leverage and credit. He said the consumption of cash reserves, together with the amplified signal from Strategy’s first Bitcoin sale, has led to a contraction in liquidity. However, he distinguished that process from a forced-liquidation crisis. At current price levels, Strategy’s “flywheel model” has temporarily stopped, and the next direction of Bitcoin’s price will determine whether this is a mid-course adjustment or the beginning of deeper risk.
On the comparison between STRC’s depeg and the UST depeg followed by LUNA’s collapse, Murphy said the analogy goes too far. He added that if Bitcoin’s price recovers and equity ATM financing restarts, Strategy is expected to restore its cash reserves and restart its capital operation model.