Elon Musk endorsed a post on X that forecast major U.S. AI labs would reach artificial general intelligence, or AGI, by 2027, calling the prediction "accurate." The post said Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5 was already close to AGI and argued that Google, OpenAI and SpaceXAI would follow.
Prediction markets, however, are not pricing in the same level of optimism. On Kalshi, traders put the probability that OpenAI will announce AGI before 2028 at about 44.3%. On Polymarket, traders assigned only an 18% chance that OpenAI will announce AGI before 2027.
The report also noted that skepticism remains inside the AI field. OpenAI chief scientist Jakub Pachocki and others have raised concerns about the pace of the AGI race, saying no lab has properly solved alignment and monitoring issues. Turing Award winner Yann LeCun also questioned whether autoregressive large language models alone can reach human-level AI.
Elon Musk endorsed a post on X predicting that major U.S. laboratories will achieve artificial general intelligence, or AGI, by 2027, calling the forecast "accurate."
The post said Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5 is already close to AGI and predicted that Google, OpenAI and SpaceXAI would follow.
Prediction markets remain cautious
That view has not been matched by prediction markets. Kalshi traders put the probability that OpenAI will announce AGI before 2028 at about 44.3%. On Polymarket, traders assigned just an 18% chance that OpenAI will announce AGI before 2027.
Researchers also raised concerns
At the same time, OpenAI chief scientist Jakub Pachocki and others have expressed concern about the speed of the AGI race, saying no laboratory has properly solved alignment and monitoring issues.
Turing Award winner Yann LeCun also questioned whether human-level AI can be achieved through autoregressive large language models alone.
The item cited BeInCrypto as the source of the report.
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