New Huo Research said the crypto market went through a rare contradiction over the past week: money kept coming in, yet sentiment stayed stuck in fear.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $853 million in net inflows last week, the largest weekly gain since mid-April. BlackRock’s IBIT contributed more than 80% of that total. Spot Ether ETFs brought in another $245 million over the same period, lifting total weekly inflows into crypto ETFs above $1.1 billion.
Still, the market showed little sign of celebration. The Fear and Greed Index remained in the fear zone at 31 to 32. Bitcoin on Coinbase has also traded at a discount for 82 straight days, the longest stretch ever recorded for that metric. New Huo Research said the reading is usually seen as a sign that institutional demand has not been strong enough to absorb selling from retail traders. In its view, this divergence between fund flows and market mood is the most notable feature of the current market.
Weak U.S. jobs data shifts attention to CPI
On the macro side, U.S. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly showed a decline of 23,000 jobs last Friday, far below expectations for an increase of 80,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, though the drop was mainly driven by people leaving the labor force.
According to the report, those figures sharply reduced the probability of a September rate hike. On Polymarket, the chance of a 25-basis-point hike in September currently stands at 36%. The next key macro event is the July CPI report due on Wednesday, Aug. 12. New Huo Research described it as the last core macro indicator before the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting.
If inflation keeps easing, expectations for looser monetary conditions would strengthen and could support risk assets, the report said. If inflation rebounds, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index could rise and weigh on market liquidity.
CLARITY Act misses pre-recess vote
On policy, the CLARITY Act did not clear a Senate vote before the August recess. Senator John Thune has filed a motion to end debate, and a procedural vote is expected to begin around Sept. 15.
New Huo Research said the bill’s path will shape the timetable for a U.S. digital asset compliance framework. Passage would materially improve regulatory expectations and could accelerate institutional capital entering the market. If the process remains deadlocked, policy uncertainty would continue to weigh on valuations for risk assets.
Coldcard exploit and Strategy sale add to market discussion
In industry developments, a firmware vulnerability in Coldcard hardware wallets led to the theft of 1,500 to 2,000 BTC last week, worth about $100 million to $130 million based on the report’s estimate. New Huo Research said the incident highlighted the risks of self-custody and may, in the near term, push some funds toward regulated custody services and ETF products.
At the same time, Strategy sold 1,638 BTC last week. Founder Michael Saylor later clarified that his pledge to "never sell Bitcoin" applied only to his personal holdings, a comment that triggered discussion in the market.
Bitcoin trades in a narrow range
On the technical side, Bitcoin is trading in a range of $64,800 to $65,200, with both volume and volatility staying low. The weekly EMA240 at $63,500 has provided visible support. Bitcoin briefly fell below that level last week, then recovered it the next day.
On the upside, the daily EMA60 at $65,100 has continued to cap price action, a ceiling that has been in place since May. Key resistance levels sit at $68,300 and $72,700, while support is seen at $63,500 and $62,500.
New Huo Research said the market remains in a stage of confidence repair and range-bound bottom building near the bottom of the bear market, with the sustainability of ETF inflows acting as the main short-term driver.