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'New Stock God' Remains Bullish on Memory, Says Photonics Fundamentals Intact
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News EditorAccording to ChainCatcher, a figure dubbed the 'New Stock God' has reiterated their bullish stance on memory chip makers, including Micron (MU) and Samsung, arguing that markets tend to rotate between different supply bottlenecks. This week, photonics names from AXTI to LITE are back in focus; compared with the July selloff, the main change has been in share prices, followed by scattered narratives and business updates. The investor noted that the market already knew during July that COHR and LITE's laser products were sold out for the next two years and had learned about demand imbalances from AAOI's last quarter's earnings call. Aside from post-liquidation price moves, photonics fundamentals have not deteriorated; bottlenecks in optical transceivers and indium phosphide substrates remain unchanged, possibly even worsening. On memory, the 'New Stock God' said retail investors are showing capitulation, though the same crowd was extremely bullish after MU signed 16 SCAs and delivered solid guidance. They believe the current ratio of memory operating profit to market cap is 'extremely unreasonable,' and demand imbalance may worsen next year. The same companies have only seen changes in valuation and narrative, while the market rotates across sectors.
ChainCatcher reports that the investor known as the 'New Stock God' is sticking with a bullish view on storage/memory names such as Micron and Samsung. In their view, the market keeps rotating between various supply bottlenecks, and the underlying story has not cracked.
Photonics names including AXTI and LITE have re-emerged as this week's focus. The 'New Stock God' points out that, relative to the July decline, the most visible shift is in share prices rather than in narratives or operational updates. When stocks fell in July, the market was already fully aware that COHR and LITE had sold out their laser products for the next two years, and that AAOI's latest earnings call had flagged demand imbalances. Excluding post-liquidation changes in stock prices, the photonics sector's fundamentals have not deteriorated. The bottlenecks in optical transceivers and indium phosphide substrates remain intact, and may have intensified.
On memory, the commentator sees retail investors capitulating now. But the very same crowd turned extremely bullish after MU signed 16 SCAs and delivered strong outlooks. The 'New Stock God' argues that the current ratio of memory operating profit to market capitalization is 'extremely unreasonable,' and that demand imbalances could be even more severe next year. For the same companies, what has changed is simply valuation and narrative; the market just rotates across sectors.
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