According to foreign media reports on August 13, 83% of economists expect the European Central Bank to raise its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% in September, BlockBeats reported.
The survey found that 80% of economists expect the deposit facility rate to stay at 2.50% by year-end, while 63% expect it to remain at least 2.50% until the third quarter of 2027. Of the 69 economists surveyed, 57 (about 83%) expect a rate hike next month, up from 72% before the July meeting and 65% in June.
This shows that consensus is building for another ECB move in September, following June's increase.
Nomura noted: "The longer oil prices stay at current levels and the higher they rise, the greater the risk of second-round effects. The ECB cannot act before seeing these effects, but they can act in advance — which is exactly what the ECB has been doing. The risk is that if the ECB only hikes once, it looks like a fine-tuning operation, and monetary policy, as is well known, cannot be operated that way. If they hike once, they will likely hike again. Given that the June hike was an obvious choice for the ECB, we think the probability of another hike is high."