Nvidia’s latest earnings report has jolted market expectations again, with management telling investors on the company’s earnings call that revenue growth for the fiscal year ending in January 2028 could exceed 70%. That stands far above the roughly 45% Wall Street consensus previously tracked by FactSet.
Analysts moved quickly to recast their models. TD Cowen analyst Joshua Buchalter called the forward view a "potentially important catalyst" for the stock. Nvidia shares climbed 8.7% on Thursday, marking their biggest one-day gain since May 2024. By the close, the company’s market capitalization had reached $5.49 trillion, up $441.5 billion on the day, its second-largest single-day market cap increase on record.
Wall Street pushes the timeline out to fiscal 2029
Some analysts are already looking beyond the next fiscal year. In a research note, Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold wrote that Nvidia reaching $1 trillion in revenue in the fiscal year ending in January 2029 "seems possible." That view sits well above the FactSet consensus as of Wednesday, which put revenue for that year at less than $750 billion.
For the current fiscal year, analysts expect Nvidia to post $403.5 billion in revenue. The jump from that base to the $1 trillion mark has become a central question in how investors are repricing the company’s longer-term earnings power.
Management says the 70% growth view already reflects supply constraints
On the earnings call, Nvidia management said the forecast for growth above 70% already accounts for supply tightness. Without supply bottlenecks, the company indicated, the actual figure would be higher.
JPMorgan took a similar line, saying the guidance may still be conservative even after coming in far above expectations. The bank noted that Nvidia explicitly described the current environment as supply-constrained, and that the true pace of demand would be meaningfully higher if supply were not limited.
Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider also said Nvidia could outperform its current fiscal 2028 guidance if it keeps working with technology companies to expand data center buildouts and closes the gap between customer demand and available supply.
Gross margin guidance offers a fresh benchmark
Margins were another focal point after the report. Nvidia said gross margin will see some compression during the rest of the current fiscal year, but added that gross margin in the following fiscal year should stabilize in a 72% to 73% range.
Leopold said that level, while below recent highs, should be enough to ease some of the market’s more bearish concerns. He wrote that the range is "better than worst-case expectations," especially given rising memory chip prices and stiffer competition from custom chips.
Vera Rubin shipment ramp strengthens confidence in the next cycle
Buchalter described the guidance as a "strong confidence signal" in Nvidia’s business visibility, with the company’s next-generation Vera Rubin platform already entering mass production and shipment. Vera Rubin is Nvidia’s next AI chip platform after Blackwell.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said Nvidia’s July-quarter results "should remind investors why they own this stock." In his note, Rasgon argued that demand is accelerating just as Rubin is shaping up to be the company’s "largest upcoming product cycle" in its history.
He also said Nvidia’s balance sheet is becoming a moat "as important as its technology." According to Rasgon, the company is locking in customers for products worth hundreds of billions of dollars through equity investments and revenue-sharing agreements, while also supporting and expanding the ecosystem built around its products.
Data center, LPU and CPU forecasts move higher
Leopold offered a more detailed view on product-level revenue contributions. He expects Vera Rubin chips to account for about 20% of data center revenue by the third fiscal quarter.
He also said Groq 3 LPX has reached full production and will begin shipping in volume later this quarter, with emerging cloud provider Nebius among the first adopters. In his view, both Rubin and LPU production ramps are moving faster than previously modeled, leading him to raise related estimates.
On CPUs, Leopold said Nvidia is also running ahead of expectations. Grace CPU generated more than $5 billion in trailing 12-month revenue, while the next-generation Vera CPU has already entered full production. Based on order trends, Nvidia’s CPU business is now running at an annualized revenue pace of $20 billion. If supply continues to improve, CPU revenue in fiscal 2028 could more than double.
Bulls gain ammunition, but debate remains
The strong report did not erase all skepticism. Buchalter said Nvidia’s strategy of providing financing support to ecosystem partners is "unlikely to convince the bears." Even so, he said he remains "constructive" on the durability of diversified AI infrastructure spending and on Nvidia’s position as a "core enabler."
Taking the post-earnings reaction as a whole, Buchalter said the latest report left the bulls with more points on the board and argued that Nvidia shares are "meaningfully undervalued." Schneider added that the company’s outlook "could help alleviate investor concerns" over the cost of heavy capital spending.
With analysts expecting $403.5 billion in revenue this fiscal year and some now discussing a path to $1 trillion by the fiscal year ending in January 2029, the key variable remains whether Nvidia can turn supply constraints into room for future release in demand and shipments.