PANews published an opinion piece by columnist XinGPT that compares the current semiconductor setup with Nvidia’s trading pattern from July to November 2024, laying out a framework for spotting interim tops and bottoms through technical structure, positioning and fundamentals.
Nvidia’s July-November 2024 move
According to the article, Nvidia fell from about $134 on July 11, 2024 to $90.94 on Aug. 5, a decline of 33%. XinGPT says the drop was set off by several developments: rumors starting in July that Blackwell would be delayed, reports of a U.S. Department of Justice antitrust probe, and then a Bank of Japan rate hike on Aug. 5 that triggered yen carry trade unwinds and broad selling across global risk assets. The author describes that phase as a mix of fundamental rumor-driven pressure and macro-led liquidation.
From Aug. 8 to Sept. 6, Nvidia staged an oversold rebound over roughly a month as macro conditions showed some policy easing. Even so, the stock failed to clear its prior high. The article says Nvidia’s earnings were “excellent but not perfect,” and that was enough to trigger another leg down.
On Sept. 11, Nvidia said Blackwell had entered full production and shipments would begin in the fourth quarter. The stock rose 8% that day. Later, after the Federal Reserve delivered its first 50 basis-point rate cut in four years, Nvidia went on to break to a new all-time high on Nov. 8.
What an interim top looks like
Technical signals
The piece says tops often start to show up in the chart before they become obvious in the narrative. XinGPT flags double tops, failed attempts to break above a previous high, and bearish engulfing candles as key warning signs.
Crowded positioning and leverage
The article then moves to positioning. It cites a June 2024 reading showing that 70% of fund managers viewed long Mag7 as the most crowded trade, while short positions in small caps were close to record levels. In the author’s view, that left the market leaning too heavily to one side.
Another top zone appeared around the five trading sessions ending Aug. 27, 2024. During that stretch, retail investors were net buyers of NVDA to the tune of $1.4 billion, while Tesla, the second-largest name in the same comparison, drew only about $100 million to $200 million. XinGPT says the gap was close to tenfold. The 2x long NVDA ETF NVDL also saw $3.5 billion in net inflows for the year and was repeatedly among the most active products in the market during intraday trading.
Fundamentals do not need to break for a stock to fall
XinGPT argues that a stock at a crowded high can sell off even when the core earnings picture still looks strong. On Aug. 28, Nvidia posted revenue and guidance above expectations, yet after-hours trading sent the stock down nearly 7% because gross margin fell by 3%.
The article’s conclusion on tops is straightforward: once technical topping signals appear and positioning is both concentrated and leveraged, the market becomes fragile. At that point, even a relatively small change in the news flow or in the fundamental read can trigger a sharp drop.
How the article says to trade that setup
XinGPT’s trading approach is to cut exposure once topping signals emerge on the chart and the capital structure behind the move looks stretched by leverage and crowding. If the downtrend is then confirmed, the article says the position should be sold.
What an interim bottom looks like
Chart confirmation and volume
For the bottoming process, the article focuses on the three sessions from Aug. 5 to Aug. 7, 2024. On Aug. 5, Nvidia opened lower and closed with a long real body reversal candle. Volume reached 553 million shares, the biggest single-day turnover in that stretch and higher than any surrounding session. On Aug. 6, the stock reclaimed the prior day’s real body, confirming the reversal. On Aug. 7, it pulled back without breaking the previous low. XinGPT treats that three-day sequence as a technical bottoming signal.
Panic at the market level
The article then checks the move against broader risk gauges. It says the VIX hit a record reading during the session, touching 65, the third-highest level in history. Outside the U.S., the Nikkei fell 12.4%, its largest drop since 1987, while South Korea’s KOSPI fell 9% and triggered a circuit breaker. In the author’s reading, those are signs that panic and selling pressure had reached an extreme.
Macro shock rather than company-specific damage
On fundamentals, XinGPT says the chain of negative catalysts was macro in nature rather than tied to Nvidia’s operations. The article lists the Bank of Japan’s July 31 rate hike, unwinds in yen carry trades and a U.S. July nonfarm payroll figure of 114,000 that came in well below expectations. That, the piece argues, was a market-wide macro selloff rather than a deterioration in Nvidia’s business.
The article adds that the reversal on Sept. 6 followed a similar logic, though it was less extreme than the move seen on Aug. 5.
The trading takeaway on bottoms
XinGPT says a potential bottom is worth watching when two conditions line up: the chart begins to show a bottoming structure with volume confirmation, and the selloff does not damage the company’s operating fundamentals because it was caused by a one-off macro event or a short-term shock. In that kind of setup, the article says a recovery trade can be considered.
Author’s closing point
The column’s main message is that interim tops and bottoms should be judged through a three-part framework of technicals, positioning and fundamentals, with volume used as confirmation. PANews notes that the article reflects the views of a contributing columnist, not the outlet’s own position, and does not constitute investment advice.