OpenAI has confirmed the termination of an employee who allegedly used non-public information obtained at work to place bets on prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. According to reports from WIRED and TechCrunch, an OpenAI spokesperson stated that the action violated the company's internal compliance policy, which explicitly prohibits employees from using confidential information for personal gain, including trading on prediction markets. OpenAI did not disclose the identity of the fired employee.
Unusual Whales Flags 77 Suspicious Trades Across 60 Wallets
In fact, suspicious trading activity on prediction markets related to OpenAI had already drawn attention. Blockchain analytics platform Unusual Whales previously flagged 77 positions in 60 wallets, with trading patterns strongly suggesting that the traders possessed insider information from OpenAI. These suspicious bets covered contracts on the release dates of Sora and GPT-5, among other product events.
One of the most notable cases occurred in November 2023 when, after Sam Altman's temporary ouster, a newly created wallet immediately bet on his return, profiting over $16,000 before becoming inactive.
Dense Betting Before ChatGPT Browser Launch
Thirteen previously dormant wallets were created within 40 hours before the public release of ChatGPT Browser, collectively wagering $309,486 on the product's launch date contract. The timing of these bets closely aligned with the internal product schedule, suggesting the bettors likely used non-public information to act ahead of the announcement.
Tighter Scrutiny on Prediction Market Insider Trading
Prediction markets are facing a wave of crackdowns on insider trading. Earlier, Kalshi suspended the accounts of a California politician and a YouTuber for suspicious trading activity and has reported suspicious transactions to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Another widely known case is the "Google Whale" on Polymarket, an anonymous account that profited over $1 million by trading contracts on Google-related events, including markets on "most searched person of the year." This has sparked widespread concerns about tech employees using internal information to profit on prediction markets. As prediction markets continue to grow, the information advantage held by employees of tech companies is becoming a new compliance gray area.