Perpetual futures are becoming the dominant format in crypto trading, but Unchained says they are taking over a market that is shrinking rather than expanding.
The report says stocks, indexes, gold, and pre-IPO names are now being traded as round-the-clock perpetual contracts, often on venues that were almost unknown to many investors a year ago. In its framing, that is a fight for share, not a sign of fresh growth.
Perpetuals gain share while volumes weaken
Unchained says centralized perpetual futures volume has fallen to a 31-month low. Onchain perpetuals, meanwhile, dropped 21% over the past month. The piece argues that the line that “everything is becoming a perp” should be read as a statement about market share, not about expansion in the market itself.
It points to Hyperliquid as one example. According to HypeTrad, equities make up 82% of the 24-hour volume across Hyperliquid’s 205 traditional-asset markets.
Bitcoin moved across wallets and exchanges, but price barely reacted
The article also describes a late-July Coldcard firmware flaw that turned into a nine-figure theft. Holders responded by moving coins to exchanges and fresh wallets in order to reduce exposure to a single compromised vendor.
Over a span of a few days, roughly 210,000 BTC left long-term-holder wallets, the largest exodus since December 2024. Even with that move, price action was muted. Bitcoin has stayed around $63,500 through the summer, about 50% below its October high. Unchained notes that this happened during a period when the stock market was setting records.
From that, the article argues that the market no longer has a marginal buyer that reacts to shocks in a meaningful way. What is still moving is shifting between venues rather than entering the asset, and perpetuals remain the busiest venue left.
Key points highlighted in the report
- Centralized perpetual futures volume has hit a 31-month low, while onchain perpetuals fell 21% in one month.
- The idea that “everything is becoming a perp” reflects a change in share, not growth.
- Bitcoin’s carry trade has yielded less than the 2-year Treasury for more than 165 days, a stretch the article says has been matched only once before, in 2022-23.
- The reported July “surge” in tokenized stocks was driven mostly by one zero-fee promotional token, and the article says the picture turns negative once that effect is left behind.
- It also points to August 31 as the date for a test that could settle that question.
- One venue clears 40% of onchain perpetuals, but the article says a major bank believes its on-screen pricing is cheaper than its real cost, its market share is under pressure, and the deployer behind most of its growth has no backstop.
The piece was published by Unchained under the headline “Perpetual Futures Now Rule Crypto Trading as Volumes Sink to a 31-Month Low.”
