Bitcoin analyst PlanB said on July 25 that BTC could bottom below its realized price of about $53,000, arguing that this has happened in every previous bear market. The post quickly pushed the realized price back into the center of the market debate.
With Bitcoin recently slipping under $60,000, traders have been looking for the level that might define the end of the current pullback. PlanB wrote that in past deep bear markets and major corrections, Bitcoin eventually moved below realized price before finding a floor. In his view, that historical pattern is still relevant.
Chart tracks Bitcoin from 2013 to 2027
To support the argument, PlanB shared a long-term logarithmic Bitcoin chart covering 2013 through 2027. The graphic highlights two lines: a gray line for realized price and a black line for the 200-week geometric moving average. Price dots on the chart are also color-coded by RSI, shifting from blue at lower readings to red at higher ones.
He noted that since 2023, the realized price line has stayed very close to the 200-week geometric moving average. That relationship stands out in the current cycle. His takeaway was simple: if Bitcoin follows prior bear-market behavior, price could still move lower and break under $53,000.
Market participants split on whether a new low is coming
PlanB also asked followers whether a fresh low is near or whether this cycle will break with past patterns. The post drew more than 131,000 views and over a thousand likes, with replies divided between bearish and bullish camps.
Some bearish commenters agreed with the call and said Bitcoin could still fall, with bottom targets ranging from $35,000 to $50,000. Others argued that this cycle may differ because of spot ETF approval and institutional buying support. That group said the decline may not reach the same depth as in earlier cycles, and some pointed to the $60,000 area as a possible bottom.
The immediate question for the market is whether Bitcoin will still follow the same cycle rules as before now that macro conditions have shifted and Wall Street capital has become more involved. For now, the $53,000 realized price remains one of the main levels under watch.