Latest Polymarket pricing
PPP, a prediction market tracking tool, said a Polymarket contract on which AI lab will rank third on Arena.ai’s math leaderboard by the end of August now gives Alibaba AI Lab a 77% chance of finishing in that spot. The reading is up 56% over the past 24 hours. Google AI Lab is priced at 18%, down 47% over the same period.
How the market will be settled
The contract will resolve based on a check of Arena.ai’s Text Arena (Math) leaderboard at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Aug. 31, 2026. At settlement, the result will be determined by filtering the “Leaderboard” page by “Labs” and identifying the company listed third in the “Lab Rank” field. The market rules specify that the “Lab Rank” column on the Arena.ai “Text Arena | Math” leaderboard will serve as the primary basis for resolution.
Settings and tiebreak procedures
Under the stated rules, Style Control must be turned off, Adjustments must be set to None, and the page must be filtered by “Labs” when the check is made. AI companies will first be ordered according to their Lab Rank at that time.
If the lab ranking is ambiguous or cannot be obtained, the contract will instead rank companies by the highest-ranked AI model each company has in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied, the ranking will be decided by Arena Score, including the exact unrounded values in the leaderboard data. If the result is still completely tied, the final determination will be made using alphabetical order based on the AI labs or company names listed in the market.