PPP market-tracking data shows a sharp drop in Polymarket’s implied odds that Anthropic will complete an initial public offering by Oct. 15, 2026. The contract’s probability fell to 6%, down 51% over the past week. A separate market on whether Anthropic will go public by Oct. 31, 2026 dropped to 60%, a weekly decline of 29%.
Under the contract rules, the market resolves to Yes only if Anthropic is formally listed on a public securities exchange and its stock opens for trading by 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on the specified date. If that does not happen, the outcome is No. The rules also state that if Anthropic is acquired by an already public company, the market resolves immediately to No. Primary resolution sources are filings and announcements released by Anthropic and the exchange where the shares would trade.
The move comes after Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Anthropic planned to begin its IPO roadshow as early as mid-October and aimed to list before the U.S. midterm elections in November. On the same day, David Sacks called for Anthropic’s IPO to be paused until an investigation into claims made by a whistleblower is completed.
PPP market-monitoring data shows that on Polymarket, the probability of Anthropic completing an IPO by Oct. 15, 2026 has fallen to 6%, down 51% over the past week. The probability of an Anthropic IPO by Oct. 31, 2026 stands at 60%, down 29% on the week.
How the market resolves
Under the settlement rules, the contract resolves to Yes if Anthropic is formally listed on a public securities exchange and its shares are open for trading by 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on the specified date. Otherwise, it resolves to No.
If Anthropic is acquired by a publicly listed company, the market resolves immediately to No. The primary sources for settlement are filings and announcements published by Anthropic and the exchange where its stock is listed.
Earlier report and fresh pushback
Reuters previously reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that Anthropic planned to launch its IPO roadshow as early as mid-October and was seeking to go public before the U.S. midterm elections in November.
David Sacks, chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, said today that Anthropic’s IPO should be paused until an investigation into the relevant whistleblower claims is completed.
Who the whistleblower is
The whistleblower refers to former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon. Coxon previously resigned over concerns about AI safety risks and publicly accused Anthropic and OpenAI of racing to build self-improving superintelligence without adequate safety safeguards.
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