PPP’s prediction-market tracker shows rising odds on Polymarket for Bitcoin to reach higher price levels before August ends. The market for BTC touching $85,000 during the remaining days of August has climbed to 44%, up 26% over the past 24 hours. A separate contract tracking whether BTC will hit $90,000 in the same period has moved to 12%, an increase of 6% over 24 hours. Settlement for the market is tied specifically to the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Under the listed rules, the contract resolves based on whether the high of any one-minute candle on Binance BTC/USDT reaches or exceeds the target price at any time from 12:00 a.m. Eastern Time on the first day of the month through 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on the last day. If that condition is met, the market resolves to Yes immediately; otherwise, it resolves to No. Prices from other exchanges, other trading pairs, or spot markets outside that benchmark are not counted.
PPP’s prediction-market tracker shows that on Polymarket, the odds of 「BTC hitting $85,000 during the remaining days of August」 have risen to 44%, up 26% in the past 24 hours.
In a related market, the probability of BTC touching $90,000 during the rest of August has climbed to 12%, a 6% increase over 24 hours.
Settlement is based on Binance BTC/USDT
Under the market’s rules, settlement is tied to the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. During the month specified in the title — from 12:00 a.m. ET on the first day of the month to 11:59 p.m. ET on the last day — the contract resolves to Yes immediately if the high of any one-minute candle is equal to or above the target price. If that does not happen, it resolves to No.
The market uses only the one-minute candle high price for Binance BTC/USDT. Prices from other exchanges, other trading pairs, or other spot markets are not included.
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