Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said crypto trading has increasingly become a game of "irrational exuberance" as traders rush to find the next 100x token before everyone else.
Speaking during a fireside chat at Token2049 Singapore on Wednesday, Coplan said many market participants are buying assets they may not even believe have real value, hoping only to exit before the trade collapses.
"People think they’re buying something, it’s worthless, but they’re buying it. If it can go to 100X, they want to sell it before it goes back to zero," Coplan said.
He added that some traders do build significant wealth this way, but described the setup as "a game of irrational exuberance and hot potato," where prices that surge eventually come back down.
The Cointelegraph report linked that view to economist Robert J. Shiller’s 2000 book Irrational Exuberance, which examined how optimism spreads through psychology, social dynamics and feedback loops. In crypto, the same pull of rapid wealth creation continues to attract traders, even though identifying the next winning altcoin remains difficult. The report also cited BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who argued in December that altcoin season never ended and that traders simply missed most of the cycle’s biggest winners.
Coplan says Polymarket’s growth points to demand for more predictable odds
Coplan said Polymarket’s user growth suggests some traders are moving toward markets where the odds are more predictable, instead of chasing the next breakout crypto asset.
"On Polymarket, if you’re trading these markets, there’s no exponential upside," he said, adding that informed traders still participate because they are betting on future events with odds they see as easier to price.
According to DefiLlama data cited in the report, Polymarket is the second-largest prediction market, with $1.21 billion in prediction volume over the past seven days. Kalshi, the largest platform, recorded $2.3 billion over the same period.
The report also referenced a December note from 10x Research, which said prediction markets are becoming a new battleground in the crypto economy. In that view, data-driven "elite" traders profit from information asymmetry and spreads created by casual investors looking for quick gains.
Regulatory pressure is rising around prediction markets
Growth in the sector has also brought heavier regulatory scrutiny in the United States. On Aug. 14, JPMorgan Chase reportedly ended its banking relationship with Polymarket over regulatory concerns, while saying it remained interested in a possible underwriting role if Polymarket seeks to go public.
More than a dozen US states have taken legal action against Polymarket, Kalshi, or both over sports event contracts. Authorities in several countries have also blocked or restricted access to Polymarket.
The report additionally pointed to a related development: Trump Jr.-linked 1789 Capital was reported to be leading Polymarket’s $1 billion raise.