PPP’s prediction market tracker shows that the Polymarket contract on whether the next Claude Opus model will be released on Sept. 22 has risen to 77%, up 50% over the past 24 hours. The market uses a narrow resolution standard: only a new model that Anthropic officially names as “Opus” counts, with examples including Claude Opus 5.1, Opus 5.5, or Opus 6. Other model names such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, and Mythos do not qualify unless Anthropic formally labels them as Opus. The release date is judged by the calendar date in U.S. Eastern Time. To resolve positively, the model must be genuinely available to the public. Public betas and open rolling waitlists qualify, while closed betas, invite-only access, and private availability do not. If Anthropic’s website merely displays a model name, placeholder, or mistaken label without real public access, that also does not count. Final resolution will rely primarily on Anthropic’s official information, with checks against credible media reports.
PPP’s prediction market tracker shows the probability on Polymarket for the contract titled whether the next Claude Opus model will be released on Sept. 22 has climbed to 77%, a 50% gain over the past 24 hours.
Only officially named Opus models qualify
The market counts only a new model that Anthropic explicitly names as “Opus.” Examples listed in the contract rules include Claude Opus 5.1, Opus 5.5, and Opus 6. Other names, including Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, and Mythos, do not qualify unless Anthropic later officially labels them as Opus.
Resolution depends on Eastern Time and public availability
The release date is judged by the calendar date in U.S. Eastern Time. For the market to resolve positively, the model must be genuinely available to the public. A public beta or an open rolling waitlist qualifies. A closed beta, invite-only release, or private access does not.
The rules also state that if Anthropic’s website only shows the model name, a placeholder, or a labeling error while the model is not actually usable by the public, that does not count as a release.
Anthropic’s official information is the main reference
Final resolution will rely primarily on official information from Anthropic, with verification supported by credible media reports.
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