A U.S. F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran on April 3. One crew member was rescued, but a weapon systems officer remains missing. As search-and-rescue operations continued inside Iranian territory, prediction market Polymarket listed a contract allowing users to bet on when the missing pilot would be saved — igniting immediate backlash.
Rep. Moulton Blasts 'Disgusting' Bets on Human Life
Rep. Seth Moulton, a Massachusetts Democrat and Marine Corps veteran who served in Iraq, slammed the market on X. 'These could be your neighbors, friends, or family members,' he wrote. 'People are betting on whether they'll be rescued. It's absolutely disgusting.' Polymarket replied under Moulton's post, apologizing and confirming the market had been taken down. 'We closed this market immediately because it did not meet our integrity standards,' the platform said, adding that they are investigating how it bypassed internal safeguards.
Moulton was not satisfied. He fired back, calling the integrity standards 'grossly inadequate' and pointing out that there are still 219 war-related markets active on the platform. He demanded they all be removed immediately. Those markets cover topics like conflict outcomes, casualty figures, and ceasefire timelines.
Regulatory Storm Brews: Legislation and CFTC Lawsuits
The incident comes amid intensifying debate in Washington over prediction market regulation. Last month, a Senate bill was introduced to ban sports and casino-style event contracts on these platforms. Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy also pledged to push legislation prohibiting bets tied to government actions, specifically targeting war-related wagers.
More targeted bills have emerged. The Ending Prediction Market Corruption Act, proposed by Sens. Merkley and Klobuchar, would bar the president, vice president, members of Congress, and their families from trading on prediction markets. The BETS OFF Act, from Reps. Budzinski and Smith, would forbid platforms from accepting bets on government actions, terrorism, war, and assassinations.
Meanwhile, the CFTC filed lawsuits on April 2 against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois over jurisdictional disputes regarding prediction market oversight. Polymarket had earlier secured CFTC approval to operate as a designated contract market (DCM) in the U.S., but this controversy could jeopardize that status. Analysts warn that failure to clean up the 219 war markets may lead to fines or even license revocation.