PPP’s prediction market tracker shows that a newly created account on Polymarket bought a $196,000 position backing the outcome that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not raise rates by 25 basis points after its July meeting. The position was opened at 72.5 cents.
The market resolves based on the statement released after the Federal Open Market Committee’s July meeting and on changes to the upper bound of the federal funds target rate versus the level before the meeting. If the rate change does not match an existing option, settlement will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. That means a 12.5 basis point cut or hike would still be counted as 25 basis points.
According to the market rules cited in the source, official FOMC statements and federal funds target rate data published by the Federal Reserve will serve as the settlement basis. If no relevant statement is released before the next scheduled meeting concludes, the event resolves to “unchanged.” The Fed’s July FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29.
PPP’s prediction market tracker shows that in Polymarket’s market on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points after its July meeting, a new account (0x0c689c8e78588fd3d02e56a6e787e7f9e9b09e76) bought $196,000 worth of shares on the outcome that the Fed will not deliver a 25 basis point hike after the July meeting. The position was opened at 72.5 cents.
Resolution tied to the July FOMC statement
The event will be settled based on the statement released after the Federal Open Market Committee’s July meeting, using the change in the upper bound of the federal funds target rate versus the level before the meeting.
If the size of the rate move does not match an existing option, settlement will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. Under that rule, a 12.5 basis point cut or a 12.5 basis point hike would both be counted as 25 basis points. The settlement source will be the Federal Reserve’s official FOMC statement and federal funds target rate data. If no relevant statement is released before the end of the next scheduled meeting, the event will resolve to “unchanged.”
July meeting dates
The Federal Reserve’s July FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28 to July 29.
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