On Polymarket, the implied probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September has reached 48%, up 5% in the past 24 hours and 24% over the past month. The odds of the Fed holding rates unchanged in September have dropped to 49%, down 21% from a month ago. The shifts come before the release of the July U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due at 20:30 Beijing time. Wall Street forecasts span 18,000 to 83,000 new jobs, an unusually wide range. Market participants warn that a significant deviation from expectations could cause sharp moves in stocks, bonds and the dollar. The unemployment rate remains the Fed's central focus, they say. Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave said the Fed could hike as many as three more times this year if the labor market appears "all clear," while federal funds futures currently price only one increase. That contrast leaves rate expectations sensitive to the upcoming jobs data.
On Polymarket, the implied probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September has climbed to 48%, up 5% over the past 24 hours and 24% over the past month. The probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged in September has slipped to 49%, down 21% from a month ago.
Those moves come just before the U.S. July nonfarm payrolls report, due at 20:30 Beijing time. Wall Street expectations range from 18,000 to 83,000 new jobs, a wide gap. Market participants say a result that falls significantly outside those estimates could trigger sharp moves in stocks, bonds and the dollar. The unemployment rate remains the Fed's key variable, they noted.
Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave said the Fed could raise rates up to three more times this year if the data show the labor market is "all clear." Federal funds futures, by contrast, currently price only one hike this year. That gap between one economist's scenario and market pricing may narrow after the payrolls figure is published.
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