PPP, a prediction-market tracking tool, said the implied probability of GPT Astra 6.1+ being released by Oct. 31 on Polymarket climbed to 46%, up 21% over the past 24 hours. The move came in the market titled "GPT Astra 6.1+ release date."
Under the market’s resolution rules, the contract resolves to "Yes" only if OpenAI makes a GPT model publicly available before the specified date with a version number of 6.1 or higher and with "Astra" included in the model’s name or identifier. The rules also state that the model must be open for actual public use.
Closed testing does not count. Neither does a placeholder name that appears only on OpenAI’s website. Resolution is based mainly on official information from OpenAI. The update reflects a shift in market pricing on Polymarket rather than a confirmed product release.
PPP, a prediction-market tracking tool, said the implied probability on Polymarket of GPT Astra 6.1+ being released by Oct. 31 rose to 46%, up 21% in the past 24 hours.
Market rules require a public release
The move was recorded in the Polymarket market titled "GPT Astra 6.1+ release date." Under its resolution rules, the contract resolves to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT model publicly available before the specified date with a version number of 6.1 or higher and with "Astra" in the model’s name or identifier.
The rules also say the model must be available for actual public use. Closed testing does not qualify, and neither does a placeholder name that appears only on OpenAI’s website. Resolution is based mainly on official information from OpenAI.
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