Polymarket has a new high-stakes wager: a whale wallet with a 93% win rate on the platform has bought $158,000 worth of shares betting that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal navigation before Aug. 15. The trade was flagged by PPP, a prediction market monitoring tool, and reported by Odaily. The wallet, identified by the address 0xa52b785a5510117ac3ae03d75d029f89a36c9480, opened the position at an average price of 98.6 cents per share, buying 160,003.1 shares. The contract itself asks when the strait will resume normal transits. The bet comes as US media report that Oman has agreed to a framework deal with Iran to temporarily reopen the strait. That agreement has not been formally announced yet, and US support still depends on final details. So the $158,000 position is tied to a simple yes-or-no question: will shipping through Hormuz be back to normal by Aug. 15? The whale's answer, for now, is no.
A wallet with a 93% win rate has piled $158,000 into a Polymarket position betting that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal navigation before Aug. 15.
The trade was flagged by PPP, a prediction market monitoring tool. The buyer is the address 0xa52b785a5510117ac3ae03d75d029f89a36c9480. It opened the position at an average price of 98.6 cents and accumulated 160,003.1 shares in the contract, which asks when the strait will regain normal shipping traffic.
The wager lands as US media report that Oman has agreed to a framework deal with Iran to temporarily reopen the strait. The agreement has not been formally announced, however, and whether Washington will back it still depends on final details.
That leaves the whale's six-figure bet unresolved ahead of the Aug. 15 date.
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