Polymarket’s market on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner had generated about $27.36 million in cumulative trading volume as of 5:15 p.m. Taipei time on Oct. 8, surpassing the $21.46 million recorded for the full market last year.
The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is set to be announced at 11 a.m. Oslo time on Oct. 9, which is 5 p.m. in Taipei, according to the Norwegian Nobel Institute’s website. Polymarket’s market rules state that settlement will follow the winner announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Last year’s market drew scrutiny before the official result
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado. On the Nobel website, the award citation said she was recognized for her long-term efforts to advance the democratic rights of the Venezuelan people and to pursue a peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy. The official announcement came at 11 a.m. Oslo time on Oct. 10, 2025, or 5 p.m. in Taipei.
Polymarket’s public price records, which log one data point every 10 minutes, show Machado’s implied odds at about 3.6% at 6:40 a.m. Taipei time on Oct. 10. Ten minutes later they rose to 10.8%, reached 39% at 7 a.m., and climbed to 72.8% by 8 a.m. The odds later fell back to around 38%, then returned to the 60% to 70% range after 9:40 a.m. and stayed there until the official announcement. The 8 a.m. reading came nine hours before the result was released.
Trading volume on the specific market over whether Machado would win reached about $2.24 million. Reuters reported that no experts or media outlets had mentioned her name before the announcement.
Institute says it still cannot identify who was responsible
The Norwegian Nobel Institute opened an investigation after betting activity surged about 10 hours before last year’s announcement. It has yet to determine what happened or who was behind the trades.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the institute and secretary of the Nobel Committee, told Norway’s TV2 after the incident that it was 「very likely espionage」, according to Agence France-Presse. He said the institute would investigate the unusual trading and strengthen security if needed. He also said espionage could create the impression of an internal leak, while adding that he considered a deliberate leak less likely.
Jørgen Watne Frydnes, chair of the Nobel Committee, told Norwegian news agency NTB at the time that he did not believe such a leak had happened before in the history of the prize.
On Jan. 30, 2026, Harpviken told Reuters that the institute still could not determine what had happened or who was responsible, but added that 「we still believe the digital domain is the main suspect」. He said the activity began with a single bet, then more participants followed and the amount quickly rose to $2.2 million.
Reuters also reported that one of Norway’s three intelligence agencies took part in the investigation to determine whether the episode involved an internal leak or espionage by criminals or state actors. No conclusion has been reached. Harpviken said it remained unclear whether the motive was profit or an attempt to damage the credibility of the prize, and that the institute’s current focus was preventing another leak.
Current front-runners on Polymarket
In Polymarket’s 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms was the top candidate at about 15.4%. Mykola Kuleba stood at about 8.5%, and Save the Children at about 7.4%.
Key figures and timing
- Announcement time: 11 a.m. Oslo time on Oct. 9, equal to 5 p.m. Taipei time.
- Volume snapshot time: 5:15 p.m. Taipei time on Oct. 8.
- 2026 market cumulative volume: about $27.36 million.
- 2025 full-market volume: about $21.46 million.
- 2025 Machado market volume: about $2.24 million.
Timeline of the 2025 odds move
- 6:40 a.m. Taipei time on Oct. 10, 2025: about 3.6%.
- 6:50 a.m.: about 10.8%.
- 7:00 a.m.: about 39%.
- 8:00 a.m.: about 72.8%.
- Later fell back to around 38%.
- After 9:40 a.m., returned to the 60% to 70% range and stayed there until the announcement.