Galaxy Research, using Polymarket on-chain settlement data compiled by Stork, analyzed about 2.9 million retail accounts on the platform’s international market after filtering them by manual trading frequency. The study found that 69.2% of those accounts finished below breakeven, with combined losses totaling $338.9 million. It also showed a clear gap in trader retention after outcomes were realized: 15.2% of losing accounts did not open another position within 30 days, compared with 6.1% of profitable accounts. The report also identified a subgroup it labeled specialist traders, defined as accounts that traded at least five categorical markets and concentrated more than 60% of their trading in a single theme. Those accounts made up 44.1% of the sample. Within that cohort, sports traders represented 47% of all specialist traders, but only 25.1% were profitable, the lowest share among tracked themes. Technology and science traders posted the highest profitable share at 41.2%, though the report noted that sample was relatively small.
Odaily reported that Galaxy Research analyzed about 2.9 million retail accounts on Polymarket’s international platform using on-chain settlement data compiled by Stork. After filtering accounts by manual trading frequency, the firm found that 69.2% ended below breakeven, with aggregate losses reaching $338.9 million.
The data also showed that 15.2% of accounts did not open another position within 30 days after taking a loss. For accounts that were profitable, that figure was 6.1%.
The report defined specialist traders as accounts that traded at least five categorical markets and placed more than 60% of their trades in a single theme. Those traders accounted for 44.1% of the total. Among them, sports traders made up 47% of all specialist traders, but only 25.1% were profitable, the lowest level across themes. Technology and science traders recorded the highest profitable share at 41.2%, although the sample size was small.
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