Prediction market Polymarket reports that the probability of WTI crude oil breaking $90 per barrel in September has risen to 77%, up 17 percentage points in 24 hours. The probability of exceeding $95 stands at 47%, up 18 percentage points. The U.S.-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with two supertankers struck by unidentified objects near the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying supply concerns. International oil prices extended gains, with WTI crude approaching $88 and Brent rising above $92.
Prediction market Polymarket now puts the odds of WTI crude oil futures hitting $90 per barrel in September at 77%. That is a 17-percentage-point jump in the past 24 hours. The chance of breaking $95 has also climbed, now sitting at 47%, up 18 percentage points over the same stretch.
Rising U.S.-Iran tensions drove the move. Two supertankers were hit by unidentified objects while passing through the Strait of Hormuz. That rattled the market and sharpened worries about crude supply. Oil prices kept pushing higher: WTI crude briefly touched $88 per barrel, while Brent crude moved above $92.
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