Polymarket data shows the probability of a US-Iran agreement on the Strait of Hormuz before Aug. 15 has fallen to 11%, down 37% from last week. The odds of a deal by Aug. 31 also dropped to 26%, a 23% weekly decline. Talks on reopening the strait are at an impasse again, with a previously negotiated transit-management arrangement involving Iran, Oman and the US left unannounced for days. Market expectations for a quick deal and resumed shipping have weakened accordingly.
Polymarket odds for a US-Iran agreement on the Strait of Hormuz by Aug. 15 have fallen to 11%, down 37% from last week, according to monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool. The probability of a deal by Aug. 31 dropped to 26%, a 23% weekly decline.
Negotiations to reopen the strait have again hit a standstill. US officials said a transit-management arrangement involving Iran, Oman and the US had been completed in earlier talks, but the agreement has been shelved for days without announcement. Market expectations for a near-term deal and resumption of shipping have weakened accordingly.
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