PPP’s prediction market tracker shows traders on Polymarket assigning a 75% probability that WTI crude will touch or exceed $85 per barrel in July. The same market puts the odds of hitting $90 at 32% and $95 at 17%.
Under the contract rules, the outcome resolves to Yes if the high of any 1-minute candlestick in the front-month WTI futures contract reaches or exceeds the target price at any point during July trading. The contract is tied to whether specific price levels are touched, not whether crude closes the month above them.
The move comes after a recent shift in oil-market expectations. WTI had previously fallen back to around $70 per barrel from conflict-driven highs as easing U.S.-Iran tensions and expectations for resumed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz reduced fears of supply disruption. More recently, renewed strain in U.S.-Iran relations and rising transport risk around the Strait of Hormuz have led the market to price Middle East supply disruption risk back in, supporting a rebound in oil prices.
PPP’s prediction market tracker shows that in Polymarket’s contract on whether WTI crude will reach specific price levels in July, traders are assigning a 75% chance that WTI will touch or exceed $85 per barrel. The odds of reaching $90 stand at 32%, while the probability of touching $95 is 17%.
How the market resolves
According to the contract rules, the market resolves to Yes if the high of any 1-minute candlestick in the front-month WTI futures contract reaches or exceeds the relevant target price at any time during July trading.
What changed in the market
Earlier, WTI had fallen quickly from conflict highs to around $70 per barrel as U.S.-Iran tensions eased and expectations grew that navigation through the Strait of Hormuz would resume, reducing concerns about supply disruption.
More recently, tensions between the U.S. and Iran have tightened again, and transportation risk around the Strait of Hormuz has picked up. That has led the market to price in the risk of Middle East supply disruptions again, helping lift oil prices.
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