PPP’s prediction market tracker shows a sharper bid in Polymarket contracts tied to where WTI crude may trade in September. In the market labeled around WTI’s September price targets, the probability of WTI breaking above $90 per barrel climbed to 60%, up 15% over the past 24 hours. The contract implying a move above $95 per barrel was priced at 30%, down 1% on the day.
The move came as tensions in the Middle East escalated again. On Sunday local time, U.S. forces carried out their first military strike on Iran in more than a month, hitting two Iranian rocket launch installations on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after the strike, Iran retaliated against a U.S. military base in Jordan. Following the renewed escalation, international oil prices moved higher, with WTI crude at one point reaching $85.53 per barrel.
PPP’s prediction market tracker shows that on Polymarket, in the event focused on where WTI crude may trade in September, the probability of WTI rising above $90 per barrel climbed to 60%, up 15% over the past 24 hours.
In the same market, the probability of WTI moving above $95 per barrel was last at 30%, down 1% in 24 hours.
Oil prices rose after tensions escalated again
On Sunday local time, U.S. forces launched their first military strike on Iran in more than a month, targeting two Iranian rocket launch installations on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz. Shortly after the strike, Iran retaliated against a U.S. military base in Jordan.
As the conflict intensified again, international oil prices moved higher, and WTI crude briefly rose to $85.53 per barrel.
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