Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to see his chair term expire on May 15, 2026, but the transition may not happen on schedule. If President Donald Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, does not win Senate confirmation before that date, Powell could remain in place as acting chair while still serving as a Fed governor.
According to the source material, Powell has already made clear that he will not leave early if a successor has not been confirmed. His position on the Board of Governors runs through January 2028. In practical terms, that means the handoff depends less on the nomination itself and more on whether the Senate can complete the full confirmation process before the deadline.
Polymarket pricing points to a possible delay
Real-time odds on Polymarket show how uncertain the timeline remains. The probability of Powell stepping down before May 14 was listed at just 2%. The chance of him leaving before May 31 stood at 75%, implying a 25% possibility that he stays on temporarily because the confirmation process is not finished in time.
Those numbers reflect procedural risk rather than a policy call. The key issue is whether the hearing, committee vote, and full Senate vote can all be completed before May 15.
April 21 hearing leaves little room for delay
Warsh’s Senate Banking Committee hearing had already been postponed and was only confirmed this week for April 21. Even if the hearing proceeds smoothly, the time needed to move from committee approval to a vote by the full Senate leaves a very tight window.
The problem is not only the calendar. The committee vote count is also fragile. Republicans hold only a narrow advantage on the Senate Banking Committee. If Democrats oppose the nomination as a bloc and North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis does not support it, Warsh would fail to advance out of committee.
DOJ probe has become the central obstacle
Tillis has said publicly that he will not move forward with any Federal Reserve nomination while the Department of Justice investigation into Powell remains active. That investigation centers on Powell’s congressional testimony regarding the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation project, involving contracts worth tens of billions of dollars according to the source.
A federal judge in Washington, D.C. has already quashed an early DOJ subpoena, ruling that the available evidence was sufficient to show the inquiry was intended to harass Powell and pressure him. Even so, D.C. federal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro said the investigation would continue. That leaves an unusual situation in place: the same probe affecting Powell is also slowing the Senate path for Warsh, raising the odds that the Fed chair transition could remain unresolved past the formal end of Powell’s term.