Prediction market traders are betting U.S. gasoline prices could climb past fresh highs as crude oil stays above $100 a barrel. Citing Kalshi data, CNBC reported that the market now assigns a 71% chance that the U.S. national average gasoline price will rise above $4.60 per gallon in 2026, a level above this year’s high of $4.56 set on May 21. The same market prices a 57% chance of gasoline moving above $4.80 per gallon and puts the odds of breaking $5 above 40%.
Kalshi traders are also wagering that elevated fuel prices may last into the political calendar. Contracts imply about a 50% probability that average U.S. gasoline prices will still be above $4.25 per gallon on Nov. 3, the day of the U.S. midterm elections. The report said the latest rise in oil prices has been driven mainly by escalating tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, along with supply risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, WTI crude futures rose about 3.5% and moved above $103 a barrel.
U.S. gasoline prices are drawing fresh bets on prediction markets as international crude holds above $100 a barrel and retail fuel prices climb back toward recent highs.
According to CNBC, citing data from Kalshi, the market now sees a 71% chance that the U.S. national average gasoline price will top $4.60 per gallon in 2026. That level would exceed the 2026 high of $4.56 per gallon set on May 21.
Kalshi pricing also shows a 57% probability that gasoline will rise above $4.80 per gallon. The odds of prices moving past $5 per gallon are above 40%. The last time U.S. gasoline prices broke $5 was in June 2022.
Separate contracts suggest traders expect elevated prices to persist. Kalshi traders assign about a 50% chance that the national average gasoline price will still be above $4.25 per gallon on Nov. 3, the date of the U.S. midterm elections.
The report said the latest move in oil has been driven mainly by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, WTI crude futures rose about 3.5% and traded above $103 a barrel.
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