Prediction markets are increasingly leaning toward an iPhone 18 price increase, according to a BlockTempo market analysis that cited pricing signals from Polymarket, Kalshi and yoyo market.
The article said market expectations for a price hike climbed from 47% to 90%. It tied that shift to rising memory costs, mounting pressure in Apple’s supply chain, and the possibility that Apple is preparing consumers for a higher-priced product lineup if a foldable iPhone arrives this year.
BlockTempo wrote that in mid-June, Apple CEO Tim Cook acknowledged higher memory costs when asked about them and said price increases for this year’s products were "unavoidable." In the same month, Apple also raised global prices for MacBook and iPad products without advance warning, while analysts were said to be expecting a $200 increase for the iPhone 18 Pro.
Why prediction markets shifted
The report cited Kalshi pricing that implied a 91% chance Apple will launch an iPhone Fold before 2027. On Polymarket, the probability of an iPhone price increase rose from 47% to 90%, while yoyo market was described as showing rolling, real-time updates on the same questions.
BlockTempo said three separate markets were sending a similar signal, which it framed as a repricing of a strategy in which Apple prepares the market first and pushes pricing higher later.
The bullish case for higher prices
The analysis placed memory costs at the center of the debate. Citing a TechInsights teardown for The Wall Street Journal, it said the bill of materials for the iPhone 18 Pro is 25% higher than that of the iPhone 17 Pro. DRAM was said to have risen from $39 to $145, while 256GB NAND climbed from $13 to $51, with memory accounting for the biggest jump.
The report also said the iPhone 18 line will use TSMC’s 2nm process for the first time, putting the cost of an A20 chip at about $280 per unit, more than 80% above the previous generation.
BlockTempo argued that these pressures have already shown up in Apple’s actions. It pointed to Apple’s late-June global price increases for Mac and iPad products and quoted the company as saying that component prices had never risen so much in such a short time.
The article also linked the timing of those cost pressures with growing foldable iPhone speculation. It said supply chain information indicates Apple’s first foldable iPhone will be unveiled in September alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, and that production planning was raised from 7 million to 8 million units to 10 million units. If higher prices were already becoming hard to avoid, BlockTempo said, this could also help create room for a new product line priced near $2,000.
Against that backdrop, the report said the YES price on Polymarket for the question of whether the iPhone 18 will cost more than $1,100 jumped from 47% to 91% within a week of Apple’s price changes. It noted that figure was current as of mid-August.
The case against a sticker-price increase
BlockTempo also laid out the counterargument. Apple has not raised the entry price of the standard iPhone for six straight generations. From the iPhone 12 through the iPhone 17, the starting price for the base model has remained at $799.
The pricing table in the article listed the following ranges: in 2018, iPhone XS (XR) at $749, Pro at $999 and Pro Max at $1,099; in 2019, iPhone 11 at $699, down $50, with Pro at $999 and Pro Max at $1,099; from 2020 to 2022, iPhone 12 through 14 at $799, $999 and $1,099; in 2023, iPhone 15 at $799, Pro at $999 and Pro Max at $1,199, up $100; in 2024, iPhone 16 at $799, Pro at $999 and Pro Max at $1,199; and in 2025, iPhone 17 at $799, Pro at $1,099, up $100, and Pro Max at $1,199.
From that data, the article argued that Apple has treated the $799 standard-model price as a firm line. Even with memory costs rising sharply in 2025, it let the Pro line absorb more of the pressure, a pattern BlockTempo described as part of Apple’s brand pricing discipline.
The report made a second point: over the past nine years, Pro and Pro Max have never been raised at the same time. It said Apple appears to increase only one model at a time, a pattern that looks more like staggered testing of what the market will tolerate.
How Apple can raise effective prices without moving the list price
The article said Apple more often protects the list price and changes the entry configuration instead. By removing the lower-capacity version, it can push buyers to spend an extra $100 for the next storage tier.
It used the iPhone 15 Pro Max in 2023 as one example. Apple removed the 128GB version, making 256GB at $1,199 the entry point, but on a same-capacity basis the price did not actually rise. The article said Apple repeated the same move with the iPhone 17 Pro in 2025.
BlockTempo wrote that this approach has already worked. Apple stopped disclosing official average selling price data in November 2018, with the last public figure at $793. CIRP, according to the article, estimated that the weighted retail price of iPhones in the U.S. had climbed to about $1,090 by September 2025. In other words, the sticker price may have stayed flat for years, but the actual amount customers pay has risen by nearly 30%.
September launch event will settle the debate
BlockTempo concluded that the market has no shortage of arguments on either side, from memory costs and supply chain signals to Apple’s long-running pricing habits. The answer, it said, will come at Apple’s September launch event.
The article also noted that yoyo market has launched real-time prediction events covering the starting prices of the iPhone 18 Pro and Apple’s foldable phone.