Prediction markets made up an estimated 27% of all legal sports betting activity in the United States during the first month of the 2026 World Cup, according to H2 Gambling Capital. BlockTempo reported that the share was 9% at the start of the year, implying a threefold increase within a few months.
The report said the jump shows trading platforms are taking market share from the traditional sports betting industry at a faster pace than many in the sector expected.
What the 27% estimate represents
BlockTempo said the U.S. sports betting market reached about $34 billion in total handle in 2025, making it one of the more mature wagering markets outside the World Cup cycle. Based on the shift from 9% to 27%, the report framed the move this way: about one in every four dollars wagered was flowing to platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket rather than to conventional sportsbooks.
The article attributed part of that rise to structural differences between prediction markets and standard betting products. Users can trade both “yes” and “no,” enter and exit positions during the life of a market, and work with transparent pricing that can be combined into broader strategies. For users already familiar with crypto-style trading, BlockTempo said the experience is close to what they already use.
H2 also warned that the number should be treated as an estimate, not an exact statistical reading. Prediction markets and sportsbooks do not measure “activity volume” in exactly the same way, and sportsbooks have not yet released the latest internal data cited in the report.
World Cup seen as a major volume window
The article said the surge during the World Cup was not unexpected in itself. In June, Bernstein published a report saying the tournament could bring tens of billions of dollars in trading volume to prediction markets. It named Kalshi, Polymarket and Sportify as the three main winners.
According to the report cited by BlockTempo, the World Cup period features an average of about 1,200 matches per day, and each match can support several event contracts tied to outcomes such as winners, goal totals and final scores. Using an average of five contracts per match, the report said the full tournament could generate about 6,000 separate tradable instruments, more than the number of lines typically offered by traditional sportsbooks.
Platform growth and regulation are moving together
BlockTempo said the expansion has been driven mainly by two groups of products: Kalshi’s contracts tied to major U.S. leagues including the NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL, and Polymarket’s focus on the World Cup and broader football markets.
The report also noted that Polymarket has recently been active in CLARITY Act-related forecasting, a sign that the platform is extending beyond sports and into political prediction markets.
On the regulatory side, North Carolina began imposing a 6% tax on prediction markets in July, according to the article. BlockTempo described that as a practical acknowledgment of trading rights for federally regulated commodity market operators and said it was the first move of its kind in North America.
Taiwan was cited as a related regional example
The article said Taiwan’s local prediction market segment has not yet reached scale, but crypto trading platform adoption is already among the highest in Asia. Citing statistics from Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, BlockTempo said Taiwan’s digital asset trading volume exceeded TWD 50 billion in 2025, with sports-event wagering accounting for about 15%.
It added that if Taiwan opens up sports betting in the future, prediction market mechanisms could become one of the preferred models because they do not require physical casinos or complex odds calculations, only an on-chain or off-chain trading engine.
BlockTempo concluded that H2’s estimate shows prediction markets are no longer just a niche crypto product. The article said they are already changing how sports betting volume is distributed, and if the trend holds through the rest of the World Cup, 27% may only be a starting point.