QCP Capital said Bitcoin has bounced from a low near $62,500 earlier this week to trade around $64,000. The more striking aspect is the pressure the market absorbed: Strategy sold 1,638 BTC worth roughly $105 million, and reported losses from the Coldcard security incident have climbed to about $110 million. Neither triggered a sustained breakdown. Options markets stayed calm, with front-end implied volatility near the low end of its recent range and downside skew easing. Macro data points were mixed — US manufacturing strengthened in July while labor indicators softened, with JOLTS job openings falling to 7.36 million and ADP private payrolls adding just 44,000. All eyes are on today's US jobs report. Brent crude pushed back above $83 on Strait of Hormuz uncertainty, and Japan remains a liquidity variable as the BOJ still holds roughly half of outstanding JGBs after joint intervention. QCP's takeaway: resilience is improving, but momentum remains limited. Macro liquidity, energy markets and the timeline for US digital-asset legislation are the core variables to watch.
QCP Capital said in a note on Aug 7 that Bitcoin has rebounded from a low near $62,500 earlier this week and is now consolidating around $64,000. The firm said what stands out is not the momentum itself but the pressure the market has absorbed along the way.
Two shocks, no sustained breakdown
Strategy sold 1,638 bitcoins, raising about $105 million. Reported losses tied to the Coldcard security incident have risen to roughly $110 million. Neither event pushed Bitcoin into a sustained decline.
Options market stays calm
The options market reflects the same measured tone. Front-end implied volatility remains at the low end of the recent range, and downside skew has eased — even as the macro backdrop stays complicated.
Macro: jobs report in focus
US manufacturing firmed in July, but labor market readings have softened. JOLTS job openings fell to 7.36 million, and ADP private payrolls rose by just 44,000, putting today's US employment report at the center of attention.
Oil and Japan
Strait of Hormuz uncertainty has pushed Brent crude back above $83 a barrel.
Japan remains another important liquidity variable. After joint intervention to support the yen, domestic yields are rising and the Bank of Japan still holds roughly half of outstanding JGBs. The impact of Japanese funding conditions now extends well beyond the FX market.
Bottom line
For crypto, the key distinction still holds: resilience is up, but momentum is limited. Macro liquidity, energy markets and the timeline for US digital-asset legislation remain the core variables to watch.
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