Bitcoin has broken above the $82,500-$85,700 range that held for the past week, QCP Capital said in its latest market note. BTC traded as high as $86,913 intraday, its highest level since Sept. 23, and was changing hands near $85,900 at the time of the note, up 14.6% from the Sept. 15 low of $74,968.
QCP says spot flows are leading the rally
QCP said annualized funding rates in perpetual futures were only 5.4% during the move, a sign that spot demand, rather than leveraged positioning, has been the main driver.
The firm said Bitcoin’s advance has diverged from traditional macro signals. In September, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.62%, the 10-year yield reached 5.29% at one point, and gold posted its worst monthly performance of the year. Even though higher real yields usually weigh on gold and risk assets, BTC continued to rise.
In QCP’s view, the move looks more like a concentrated flow trade driven by institutional inflows, regulatory catalysts and improving technicals than a straightforward currency debasement trade.
ETF inflows and regulatory support
On institutional demand and regulation, QCP said U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $3.5 billion in net inflows in August and about $2.6 billion in September.
QCP also pointed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s innovation exemption policy released on Sept. 17 as a fresh regulatory catalyst for the market. At the same time, it noted that the CLARITY Act previously failed to pass the Senate, which could push market structure legislation back to 2027. That leaves current regulatory support coming more from the administrative side, with long-term policy certainty still limited.
Options block trades show positions rolling from October to November
In the options market, notional trading volume reached about $2.5 billion yesterday, including 54 block trades with single-ticket notionals above $5 million.
QCP highlighted one client that sold more than 4,000 contracts in batches of Oct. 30 $90,000 calls, for total notional value of $346 million, while actively buying Nov. 27 calls at the same strike.
According to QCP, the trade suggests some participants are rolling exposure from October into November to position for volatility around the U.S. midterm elections, quarterly Treasury refunding and the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.
Fed meeting and payrolls report in focus
On the macro calendar, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its policy meeting on Oct. 27-28. QCP said expectations for rates to remain unchanged in October have strengthened after Fed official Williams said there was no need to rush further policy adjustments and after August core PCE came in below expectations.
Even so, the market is still pricing roughly an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. Tonight’s U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report is seen as an important near-term test. Market expectations are for payroll growth of 84,000 to 93,000, an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and average hourly earnings growth of 3% year over year.
Technical levels and volatility structure
On the technical side, QCP said the $82,500 support level has been tested three times over the past week. The $87,400 area marks the September high and stands as the key resistance level before BTC can make a stronger push toward $90,000.
In options, the implied volatility term structure remains in contango, with 7-day implied volatility at 30.3 and 90-day implied volatility at 37.1. The 30-day risk reversal sits around -2.5 volatility points, indicating firmer demand for short-term downside protection.
QCP said Bitcoin has shown resilience even as real yields rise, but added that the move is still being driven mainly by flows and positioning shifts rather than a clean easing of macro risk. U.S. labor data, Treasury supply and a dense run of policy events in the coming weeks could still trigger volatility.