QCP Capital said in its latest Market Colour note that the August U.S. employment report was materially stronger than expected, shifting market attention away from growth worries and back toward inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, far above the market expectation of 55,000 and sharply higher than July’s revised 21,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month.
Crypto market held up as ETF inflows offered support
QCP said the crypto market stayed broadly supported last week. BTC briefly traded above $82,000 before falling back to around $79,300. ETH held near $2,500.
From Sept. 1 to Sept. 4, U.S. spot BTC ETFs posted about $770 million in net inflows. On Sept. 3 alone, net inflows reached $730.8 million, reversing the roughly $236.5 million in net outflows recorded on Sept. 1.
Even so, QCP said recent market moves have been driven more by changes in the macro environment than by crypto-specific catalysts. It said ETF inflows are providing structural support, but BTC has still struggled to break convincingly through the $80,000 to $82,000 range. ETH, for its part, has continued to meet selling pressure above $2,500. In QCP’s view, that points to caution among traders before inflation data offers a clearer signal.
PPI and CPI now in focus
QCP said the key event for markets this week is U.S. inflation data. August PPI is scheduled for Sept. 10, followed by August CPI and core CPI on Sept. 11.
The firm said the labor report has already reduced concern over a worsening job market, leaving CPI as an important variable for judging expectations around any September policy adjustment by the Fed. If CPI continues to ease at a moderate pace, that would give the central bank more room to wait and observe. If inflation firms again, it could strengthen expectations for policy adjustment and drive another repricing in rate expectations.
Key levels for BTC and ETH
QCP put BTC resistance at $80,000 to $82,000, with support at $77,000 to $78,000. For ETH, it placed resistance at $2,500 to $2,550 and support at $2,400 to $2,425.
With volatility still subdued and major data releases close at hand, QCP said the market may be waiting for the inflation print before choosing a new direction.