Rhodium Group estimates that the combined annual recurring revenue, or ARR, of Chinese AI models is only about 10% of the revenue generated by OpenAI and Anthropic. The U.S. research firm listed ARR figures for several Chinese companies, including DeepSeek at $500 million, MiniMax at $800 million, Moonshot at $1 billion, and Z.ai at $1.8 billion. Even after adding ByteDance at $4 billion and Alibaba at $2.4 billion, the total still trails far behind OpenAI’s $40 billion and Anthropic’s $65 billion, according to the report.
Rhodium also said Moonshot and DeepSeek appear expensive relative to revenue, with estimated valuation-to-revenue multiples of 50x and 163x, compared with 34x for OpenAI and 21x for Anthropic. Z.ai has raised its full-year ARR target to $3 billion. Logan Wright, a partner at Rhodium, said the funding gap makes it harder for China’s frontier AI labs to scale in a sustainable way, leaving them highly dependent on favorable equity market conditions. The report added that more than 60% of equity investment in China’s AI chips and servers comes from state-linked sources.
According to ChainCatcher, U.S. research firm Rhodium Group estimates that the combined annual recurring revenue, or ARR, of Chinese AI models is only about 10% of the revenue generated by OpenAI and Anthropic.
Rhodium lists ARR figures for Chinese AI companies
Rhodium said DeepSeek has ARR of $500 million, MiniMax $800 million, Moonshot $1 billion, and Z.ai $1.8 billion.
Even after including ByteDance at $4 billion and Alibaba at $2.4 billion, the total still sits well below OpenAI’s $40 billion and Anthropic’s $65 billion.
Report flags high valuation-to-revenue ratios
The report said Moonshot and DeepSeek currently look expensive relative to revenue, with estimated multiples of 50x and 163x, above OpenAI’s 34x and Anthropic’s 21x.
Rhodium also said Z.ai has raised its full-year ARR forecast to $3 billion.
Funding gap may weigh on expansion
Logan Wright, a partner at Rhodium, said the funding gap means China’s frontier AI labs face greater difficulty scaling in a sustainable way and will be highly dependent on favorable equity market conditions.
The report added that more than 60% of equity investment in China’s AI chips and servers comes from state-linked sources.
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