Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said prediction markets are moving beyond sports, and crypto-related contracts have already captured an outsized share of activity on the platform. He said sports could become a minority of the market within a few years.
Tenev made the remarks in a CNBC Mad Money interview that aired on Sept. 18. He said many people still assume prediction markets are mostly about sports, but the business is expanding outside that category. He described sports as an entry point, saying those contracts can attract users, provide liquidity, and draw attention in much the same way as active trading products.
In the same interview, Tenev said prediction markets, stocks, and crypto all work as customer acquisition channels for Robinhood. Once users join the platform, a sizable share of them begin using other products as well, including retirement accounts.
Crypto and rate contracts cited as non-sports examples
Tenev pointed to two examples outside sports. One is contracts tied to the CLARITY Act on Robinhood. The other is interest-rate contracts, which let users trade views on the Federal Reserve’s rate path directly rather than through futures.
The CLARITY Act failed a procedural vote in the Senate on Sept. 15 by a margin of 49 to 50, falling short of the 60 votes needed to move forward.
Event-contract revenue surpassed crypto trading
Robinhood reported 13.6 billion event contracts traded in the second quarter of 2026, generating $156 million in revenue. Both figures were up more than 10 times from a year earlier. Within transaction-based revenue, event contracts ranked behind only options, which brought in $342 million. The segment also exceeded stock trading revenue of $129 million and crypto trading revenue of $100 million, with the crypto figure down 38% year over year.
On that basis, Robinhood made more than 50% more from prediction markets than from crypto trading. Each contract traded at prices between $0.01 and $1, and settles at $1, meaning the maximum implied purchase value of the 13.6 billion contracts would not exceed $13.6 billion.
The product launched at the end of 2024. Cumulative volume reached 9 billion contracts after its first year. Full-year 2025 volume topped 12 billion contracts. By early June 2026, the figure had already passed 16 billion. Robinhood’s latest published monthly figure showed 4.7 billion contracts in August, down 23% from 6.1 billion in July, but up 15 times from a year earlier.
Rothera launched in June
Robinhood formed a joint venture with market maker Susquehanna International Group in November last year to acquire a 90% stake in MIAX-owned derivatives exchange MIAXdx. The deal closed in January this year, with MIAX retaining 10%. Robinhood became the controlling owner and was tasked with bringing retail order flow, while Susquehanna served as the liquidity provider from day one. At the time, Robinhood said owning the exchange would help it bring more contracts to market faster.
MIAXdx was previously known as LedgerX. FTX bought the platform in 2021, and after FTX went bankrupt, MIAX acquired it in 2023 for $50 million. The exchange holds two Commodity Futures Trading Commission licenses: a designated contract market, or DCM, and a derivatives clearing organization, or DCO. After the joint venture took over, the venue was renamed Rothera.
Rothera went live in June. Its first listings covered the World Cup and selected Major League Baseball games. Robinhood said it would expand into other categories over time. By the time the company released second-quarter earnings at the end of July, Rothera had already handled more than 3.5 billion contracts. The company’s own exchange also started with sports, matching Tenev’s description of sports as the initial on-ramp.
Sports contracts still face legal challenges
Former Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler previously said that when Congress revised CFTC-related rules, no senator discussed sports use cases. Tenev responded in May, saying, 「I don’t object. Maybe the law should be updated.」
Kalshi is still facing legal challenges over sports contracts in multiple states. CFTC Chair Mike Selig said the dispute could reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
Robinhood said in its second-quarter risk disclosures that changes in federal or state law could prevent the company from continuing to offer event contracts. If non-sports contracts account for a larger share of the mix, the effect of that litigation on Robinhood’s prediction-market revenue would be smaller.