OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman said AI-driven disruption may arrive more slowly than many people expect, even if the underlying technology is already in place, because the economy has what he called "huge inertia."
Altman made the remarks in a conversation with Founders podcast host David Senra, in an episode titled Sam Altman on Building OpenAI to a Billion Users.
Altman responds to a bold 2026 prediction
The discussion began with a prediction from Shopify CEO Toby Lütke. Altman said Lütke believes that, looking back, 2026 will be the year "every business" gets reshuffled. He also said someone will build an "AI-native version of Shopify," and, according to Altman’s retelling, Lütke added: "That person will be me."
Altman described Lütke as one of the most forward-leaning CEOs he has met, someone who is usually six to eight months ahead of others, writes software himself, tests models firsthand, and gives precise, direct product feedback.
Why Altman has become more cautious
Altman said he is less certain about the timeline. He acknowledged that he had once been too optimistic. When GPT-4 launched in 2023, he expected the software industry to be disrupted quickly and businesses to be contested much sooner than what has actually happened.
One reason, he said, was that he underestimated economic inertia. People keep doing the same things, buying from the same companies, and using tools in the same ways. That slows down adoption even when the technology itself is strikingly powerful.
Altman added that this is not entirely negative. A large transition, in his view, can be smoother precisely because it unfolds more slowly. Still, he said that many people, himself included, have been too aggressive with their timelines.
Blockbuster, Netflix, and the difficulty of changing habits
To explain what he meant by inertia, Altman pointed to a memory from his younger years. Netflix had already started its DVD-by-mail service, before streaming became the main product, yet he still saw people walk into a Blockbuster video rental store on his way to and from school.
That image stayed with him. For Altman, it showed that having a better technology available does not automatically change user behavior. The harder problem is often not invention, but getting people to alter routines they have followed for years.
OpenAI’s product direction
Altman also outlined what he believes most users actually want from OpenAI: a single interface connected to a personal or company AGI that can handle any request, plus an API that lets people build whatever they want on top of it.
He said OpenAI plans to offer high-quality AI across every point on the cost-performance curve. That combination — a single interface and a development platform — is what he said the company wants to deliver to the world.
Same destination, different timelines
The conversation suggested that Lütke and Altman are not split on the direction of travel. Both are looking at a future in which AI reshapes how business works. Their difference is over speed. For investors and founders watching the pace of real-world adoption, the gap between rapid technical progress and slower economic adjustment may be one of the most important variables in the next few years.