Options tied to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust are signaling a quieter market than Bitcoin has recently delivered, according to Saxo Bank. In an analysis based on Sept. 23 options data, Saxo said IBIT’s implied volatility was 37.4%, below the fund’s realized volatility of 45.5% over the 20 trading sessions through Tuesday. Saxo investment and options strategist Koen Hoorelbeke wrote on Thursday that, using Wednesday’s figures, IBIT’s implied volatility rank came in at 11.9, placing it near the low end of its 12-month range. He said the options market appears to be pricing calmer conditions than those seen in the recent past. The report also outlined key Bitcoin levels, pointing to resistance around $87,000, where the rally stalled on Sept. 21, and support between $76,000 and $77,000. CoinGecko data showed Bitcoin at $84,751 at the time of writing, up 1.6% over the previous 24 hours.
Options on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) are pointing to smaller future price swings than the market has recently experienced during Bitcoin’s rebound, according to Saxo Bank.
In Saxo’s analysis of options data from Sept. 23, IBIT’s implied volatility stood at 37.4%, while realized volatility was 45.5% over the 20 trading sessions through Tuesday. Saxo investment and options strategist Koen Hoorelbeke wrote on Thursday that, based on Wednesday’s data, IBIT’s implied volatility rank was 11.9, putting the measure near the bottom of its 12-month range.
「In our view the options market appears to be pricing calmer conditions than the recent past produced,」 Hoorelbeke wrote.
Implied volatility reflects expectations for future price swings embedded in options prices. Realized volatility measures past market moves.
Key Bitcoin levels in the analysis
Hoorelbeke identified resistance around $87,000, where Bitcoin’s advance stalled on Sept. 21. He also pointed to support between $76,000 and $77,000.
According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin was trading at $84,751 at the time of writing, up 1.6% over the last 24 hours.
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