BlockBeats reported on Aug. 31 that Serenity said in a social media post that Celestial, now acquired by Marvell, could have been valued at $6 billion to $10 billion if it had remained an independent company listed in the U.S. market.
According to Serenity, Celestial had previously projected revenue of $500 million in 2028 on a fourth-quarter annualized basis, with that figure rising to $1 billion in 2029. Serenity also said the company is a core participant in co-packaged optics, or CPO, projects for hyperscale cloud providers.
Set against that outlook, Celestial’s revenue in the second quarter of 2026 was close to zero. Marvell had said Celestial’s contribution to revenue and profit after the acquisition was “not material,” while quarterly losses were about $12.5 million, equal to roughly $50 million on an annualized basis.
Serenity said that if Celestial were judged only on its quarterly P/S and the $12.5 million quarterly loss, the company could be seen as a “worthless meme stock.” But looking at the qualification cycle and potential hyperscale cloud CPO project opportunities in 2028, Serenity said a reasonable valuation could fall in the $6 billion to $10 billion range.
Serenity added that the question of how to value hard-tech companies still in the early stages of customer qualification and commercialization reflects a core divide between U.S. and European markets and culture. In its view, for companies of this type, future revenue potential once large-scale commercialization begins, along with progress in customer qualification, matters more than current quarterly revenue and losses.