Serenity, known on X as the "white-haired stock god," said a supply-chain report on Boston Dynamics published by IBK Research last month could push institutions to reassess humanoid robotics valuations. The report said Boston Dynamics is only expected to reach annual production capacity of 30,000 units by 2028, while total capacity across Chinese robot makers could hit 100,000 units by the end of 2026. Serenity argued that gap may be large enough to trigger a repricing of the sector.
The post also mapped out the competitive field by region. In the U.S. camp, Serenity listed Tesla, Figure, Apptronik and Agility Robotics, while noting that Boston Dynamics is controlled by South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Group. In China, the companies named were Unitree Robotics, Fourier Intelligence, AgiBot, UBTech and XPENG Robotics. European names included Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft and Oversonic.
IBK Research projected Atlas shipments at 11,290 units in 2028, rising to 20,000 in 2029, 30,000 in 2030, 40,000 in 2031 and 50,000 in 2032. Serenity disputed that linear path, saying the real ramp is more likely to follow an S-curve, with Atlas shipments reaching 15,000 to 20,000 in 2028, 40,000 to 70,000 in 2029 and 90,000 to 140,000 in 2030.
Odaily reported that Serenity said in a post on X that a Boston Dynamics supply-chain report published by IBK Research last month shows Boston Dynamics is not expected to reach annual production capacity of 30,000 units until 2028, while total capacity across Chinese robot manufacturers could reach 100,000 units by the end of 2026. Serenity said that gap could lead institutions to reprice the humanoid robotics business.
Companies cited across the U.S., China and Europe
According to Serenity, the U.S. group includes Tesla, Figure, Apptronik and Agility Robotics. Boston Dynamics, the post added, is controlled by South Korea's Hyundai Motor Group.
In China, Serenity listed Unitree Robotics, Fourier Intelligence, AgiBot, UBTech and XPENG Robotics. In Europe, the names cited were Neura, Pal Robotics, Wandercraft and Oversonic.
IBK Research shipment model for Atlas
IBK Research projected Atlas shipments at 11,290 units in 2028. The forecast then rises to 20,000 in 2029, 30,000 in 2030, 40,000 in 2031 and 50,000 in 2032.
Serenity challenges the linear ramp assumption
Serenity questioned that linear growth model and said the actual volume ramp is more likely to follow an S-curve. Under Serenity's estimate, Atlas shipments could reach 15,000 to 20,000 units in 2028, 40,000 to 70,000 in 2029, and 90,000 to 140,000 in 2030.
This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan. Disclaimer:
The market information, project data, and third-party content displayed on this platform are for industry information sharing only and do not constitute any form of investment advice or return commitment.
Cryptocurrency trading carries high risks. Users should fully assess their risk tolerance and make independent decisions. All profits, losses, and legal responsibilities are borne by the users themselves.
