Serenity said in a post on X that he remains bullish on memory stocks such as Micron and Samsung, while adding that this week’s focus in the photonics space has shifted back to AXT and Lumentum. He pointed to earlier signs of tight supply across the photonics sector, saying laser capacity at Coherent and Lumentum has already been sold out for the next two years. He also cited AAOI’s previous earnings report as evidence that demand for optical modules remains strong. On the memory side, Serenity said many retail investors have gone through panic selling, even as the broader setup has not fully broken down. He acknowledged that the market has changed in some respects, including memory optimization tied to Nvidia Rubin Ultra and the fact that memory prices have not risen as sharply as previously expected. Even so, he argued that at current prices, operating profit at storage companies still looks unusually large relative to market capitalization, especially with storage demand seeing structural growth. He added that the supply-demand imbalance could become more severe next year and said market sentiment often shifts faster than industry bottlenecks or underlying fundamentals.
Serenity said in a post on X that he remains bullish on memory stocks, including MU and Samsung.
He also said the market’s focus in photonics has turned back to AXT and Lumentum this week.
Photonics names move back into focus
According to Serenity, the photonics industry had already shown signs of tight supply. He said laser capacity at Coherent ($COHR) and Lumentum ($LITE) has been sold out for the next two years. He also pointed to AAOI’s earlier earnings report, which showed continued strength in demand for optical modules.
Memory outlook still positive despite changing market signals
On the storage side, Serenity said a large number of retail investors had gone through panic selling. He added that the market has in fact changed in some ways. As examples, he cited memory optimization in Nvidia Rubin Ultra and said memory prices have not risen as sharply as previously expected.
Even so, Serenity argued that at current prices, operating profit at storage companies remains striking relative to market capitalization, especially as storage demand continues to grow in a structural way. He added that the supply-demand imbalance could become even more severe next year.
Sentiment shifts faster than fundamentals
Serenity said markets often fall into panic when an industry drops and then move to a new narrative. He cited helium during the Iran war, the LNG market, and renewed comments on tight storage supply during a SpaceX earnings call. In his view, industry bottlenecks and underlying fundamentals often do not change much, while market sentiment can swing sharply.
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