Serenity said AI investing may be simpler than the market thinks, arguing that Nvidia ($NVDA) and CEO Jensen Huang have been signaling future industry trends well before the broader market is willing to believe them.
According to the Odaily report, Serenity pointed to 2025, when Nvidia moved aggressively to lock in capacity for EMLs, or electro-absorption modulated lasers, and other laser components. At the time, the market questioned the photonics trade, with some viewing related companies as overhyped or raising concerns about management. A year later, shares of several optical communications companies had climbed sharply. Lumentum ($LITE) rose 678%, Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI) gained 475.12%, Coherent ($COHR) advanced 260.7%, and AXT ($AXTI) jumped 3843.9%.
A familiar gap between industry signals and market pricing
In Serenity’s telling, investors did not fully respond when Nvidia first sent those signals. Repricing came only after the underlying trend had already started to play out. She framed Nvidia’s 2025 capacity moves in EMLs and lasers as a case the market had already lived through once.
Serenity says 2026 may be repeating the pattern
Serenity said the market now appears to be following a similar script. In 2026, Nvidia has signed long-term agreements to lock in capacity for continuous-wave, or CW, lasers and EMLs. At the same time, the company has explicitly pushed a transition toward an 800V power architecture and has repeatedly stressed that co-packaged optics, or CPO, and “Physical AI” will be important themes in the next stage.
She said the market still doubts that setup. Current skepticism, according to the report, includes the view that CW laser-related companies are merely concept stocks, that 800V and CPO will not land in the short term, and that humanoid robot commercialization remains distant.
Using Nvidia and Jensen Huang as a lead indicator
Serenity said the market may once again be underestimating the industrial signals coming from Nvidia. She added that she is more inclined to treat Nvidia and Jensen Huang’s judgment as a leading indicator for AI industry trends.
As Serenity put it: 「Nvidia is telling everyone what will happen in the future, but the market almost always waits until it actually happens before believing it.」