Odaily reported that Serenity said Sivers could support hundreds of millions of dollars in gross profit even with a limited wafer capacity allocation.
According to Serenity’s analysis, if Sivers secures about 10% of wafer capacity from foundry Win Semi under an asset-light model, with a 65% yield and an ASP of $50 to $75, its optical array products could generate annual revenue of $341 million to $512 million.
Based on management’s gross margin target of more than 50% to 60%, that would imply annual gross profit of about $205 million to $307 million. With Sivers currently valued at about $1.1 billion, Serenity said the company would be trading at roughly 3.6x to 5.4x gross profit under that scenario.
Higher allocation would lower the implied valuation multiple
Serenity said that if wafer allocation rises to 15%, Sivers’ annual gross profit could increase to $307 million to $461 million. On that basis, the implied valuation would fall further to about 2.4x to 3.6x gross profit.
Serenity also said Sivers’ CEO had previously confirmed that the company is working with more foundries to expand capacity. Since 2024, the scope of its supply chain qualification has also continued to widen.
CPO growth and tight CW laser supply remain in focus
As co-packaged optics, or CPO, development accelerates, Serenity said Sivers’ future revenue guidance and capacity planning could be raised further.
On the demand side, supply of continuous-wave, or CW, lasers remains tight. Lumentum said in its earnings report that it has started buying CW lasers from the open market to fulfill EML orders. TrendForce data, meanwhile, showed that AMD is locking in related capacity through long-term agreements.
Production ramp with partners seen as another key variable
Serenity said that as Sivers moves toward volume production with partners including GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Ayar Labs, POET, and O-Net, any new independent capacity that passes qualification could be absorbed by the market quickly.
The note also said Morgan Stanley recently named Sivers, which has a market capitalization of about $1.1 billion, as one of the three core companies in the CPO laser segment, alongside Coherent and Lumentum, both of which have market capitalizations above $55 billion.
Beyond its current business, Serenity said that after listing on Nasdaq, Sivers could also expand its TAM through acquisitions, following a path similar to Lumentum’s acquisition of Cloud Light to enter the broader optical module and optical engine markets.