Odaily reported that Serenity, known as “白毛股神,” posted on X that technical analysis, or TA, is more like a form of “trader astrology.” In his view, its essence is a combination of confirmation bias and market psychology. He described it as a tool that can help read market sentiment, rather than the core factor that determines price movements.
Examples Where Charts Were Not the Main Explanation
Serenity said that the sharp gains in several individual stocks did not come from chart patterns themselves, but from fundamentals and expectations. He cited SIVE as one example, noting that the stock rose by about 1,900%. According to his post, the move was linked to the market repricing future revenue expectations related to JBL and GFS. In that framing, the price action reflected a reassessment of future income expectations, not a standalone technical setup.
He also pointed to AXTI, which he said rose by about 8,000%. Serenity connected that move to industry logic involving indium phosphide substrates, demand in photonics, and export controls. The example was used to show that some large stock moves are better explained through sector themes and changes in expectations than through K-line patterns, trend lines, or other chart-based signals alone.
Long-Term Stock Space and the Role of Structure
Serenity argued that technical analysis can mainly reflect the psychological expectations of market participants. It can be used to look for entry timing, but he said it should not be treated as the main basis for deciding the direction of stock prices. In his view, the factors that truly affect price trends include industry theme linkage, changes in earnings expectations, the macro environment, financial report performance, and the structure of the tradable float.
His post ultimately returned to a clear conclusion: the long-term room for a stock should be assessed through fundamentals and capital structure, rather than through “chart faith.” That means explanations for individual stock moves should examine industry logic, revenue expectations, earnings changes, and share float structure, instead of relying only on technical analysis to provide the answer.