Odaily reported that Serenity, widely referred to as “Bai Mao Gu Shen,” posted on X that technical analysis, or TA, is more like a form of “trader astrology.” In his view, TA is essentially a mix of confirmation bias and market psychology. It can be used to judge sentiment among market participants, but it should not be treated as the central factor that determines price.
TA framed as a sentiment-reading tool
Serenity’s argument separates chart-based trading signals from the forces that he believes drive large and sustained moves in equities. According to the post, technical analysis can reflect how traders interpret price action, trend direction and potential entry timing. However, that does not make chart patterns the root cause of a stock’s rise. He described TA as a tool that may help identify an entry point, while stressing that it should not replace research into fundamentals, earnings expectations or capital structure.
SIVE and AXTI cited as examples of repricing
To support the point, Serenity cited several stocks that recorded major gains. He said SIVE rose by around 1,900%, not because of a chart pattern, but because the market repriced future revenue expectations related to JBL and GFS. He also cited AXTI, which rose by around 8,000%, linking that move to industrial logic involving indium phosphide substrates, demand for photonics and export controls. In both examples, the post presents the price moves as outcomes of fundamental and expectation-driven repricing rather than technical formations.
Serenity further stated that the factors that should be considered in evaluating stock moves include industry-theme linkage, changes in earnings expectations, the macro environment, financial report performance and float structure. Under that framework, technical analysis has a narrower role: it can show the psychology and expectations of market participants, but it does not fully explain the long-term upside of a stock. His conclusion is that investors should return to fundamentals and capital structure when assessing longer-term space, rather than relying on “chart faith” as the main explanation for price performance.