Siebert Financial, a financial services firm listed on Nasdaq as SIEB, has published a research report forecasting bitcoin to reach $175,000 within the next 12 months. The report, authored by research analyst Brian Vieten, introduces a three-factor model that quantifies bitcoin’s price trajectory based on macroeconomic expansion, rising digital wallet adoption, and improving regulatory conditions.
The Three-Factor Model: Money Supply, Wallet Adoption, and Demand
Vieten stated: “We initiate our digital assets coverage with a $175,000 bitcoin price target predicated on our three-factor model.” The model incorporates three key variables: a 7% rise in global money supply, which Siebert said “we expect will continue its upward trajectory over the next 12 months, benefitting store of value assets”; a 25% expansion in total digital asset wallets, largely fueled by stablecoin and tokenization adoption; and a 20% increase in bitcoin demand, a metric that Siebert estimates remains about 60% below its 2021 peak.
The report characterizes bitcoin as central to the digital asset ecosystem. “We would characterize bitcoin as the ‘genesis’ digital asset and industry bellwether, making up ~60% of total market cap,” Vieten wrote. He further added: “It is our firm belief that blockchain will one day power virtually the entirety of the global financial system for 8 billion people.” With approximately 700 million digital asset wallets currently in existence, Vieten suggests the industry is less than 10% into its adoption curve.
U.S. Regulatory Climate as a Catalyst
“We believe the U.S. is on the cusp of broad-based adoption of digital assets, particularly in the areas of tokenization and stablecoins on the back of an improving U.S. regulatory environment,” Siebert concluded. The firm expects the industry to reach nearly 1 billion wallets over the next 12 months, driven by clearer rules and increased institutional involvement.
The analysis highlights that bitcoin’s fixed supply cap of 21 million coins makes it a natural hedge against monetary expansion. As central banks globally maintain accommodative policies, scarce assets like bitcoin tend to attract capital inflows. Siebert’s model anticipates the global money supply to grow by 7%, a trajectory consistent with current monetary trends.
Outlook: Retail and Institutional Momentum
Vieten believes the rapid growth in digital wallets is not only due to stablecoins for payments but also from the tokenization of real-world assets such as real estate and bonds. The maturation of multi-chain ecosystems lowers barriers for traditional investors, while bitcoin ETFs and compliant custody solutions provide safe exposure for institutions.
The report notes that bitcoin demand, though still well below its 2021 peak, could accelerate sharply if it breaks above prior highs. With supply growth constrained by the halving cycle, any demand surge may push prices toward the $175,000 target sooner than anticipated. “We posit investment into the digital assets space is poised for an acceleration over the next 12 months,” Vieten concluded.